US President Donald Trump. Photo / AP
President Donald Trump's decision to lead the charge against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has stirred understandable wariness among his opponents.
Critics have long decried the impulsive and ideological nature of White House policy; many are also mindful of Washington's long and chequered history of meddling in Latin American affairs.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the White House had been developing a secret plan to oust Maduro and called opposition leader Juan Guaido the night before he declared himself the country's legitimate president.
The Journal reported that, according to a senior White House official, Pence pledged that the US would back Guaido if he seized the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in Venezuela's constitution.
When national security adviser John Bolton appeared to signal a US military incursion on Tuesday, it only deepened the apprehensions of Trump's opponents.
When the Trump Administration recognised opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's president, some American politicians were reluctant to take his side. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders issued tweets decrying Maduro's actions, including his violent repression of dissent. But Sanders also warned that "we must learn the lessons of the past and not be in the business of regime change or supporting coups — as we have in Chile, Guatemala, Brazil & the DR".
Others have pointed to the gulf between Trump's supposed moral clarity on Venezuela and his sustained support for problematic monarchies in the Middle East.
Another set of those on the left, including prominent figures in the inner circle of British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, see the events in Venezuela through the prism of Cold War ideology. It's a world view that celebrates the Maduro regime as an "anti-imperialist" resister of US hegemony — no matter its record of gross corruption and abuse.
"If imperialism is the 'highest stage of capitalism', as Vladimir Lenin once observed, then the perversion of anti-imperialism bandied about by the contemporary Western left is the most sordid incarnation of contemporary socialism," journalist James Bloodworth in Foreign Policy wrote.
"Activists, protesters, and opposition politicians in countries such as Venezuela and Syria are treated by the followers of this crude doctrine as if they possessed no agency at all and are merely the pawns of American capital."
There are similar ideological blinkers on the right, where figures ranging from Brazil's President to a conservative columnist for the New York Times have tried to frame the crisis in Venezuela as the natural outcome of policies advocated by their leftist rivals at home. Raising taxes on mega-rich Americans or protecting LGBT Brazilians, they suggest, will somehow inevitably lead to the scenes of chaos and deprivation in Venezuela.
That conveniently ignores the extent to which Venezuela's disaster is a product of avarice and thuggishness, not socialist doctrine.
"Venezuela has not just suffered from ideology, it also has suffered from false ideology, from a 'socialism' that gave up on healthcare and education, from a 'populism' that put drug dealers in power, and from ordinary greed," Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum wrote.
"The Venezuelan tragedy is the end game of a certain form of politics, the place where so many of today's 'illiberal democrats' may also eventually end up."
Indeed, illiberal governments are conspicuously among the few nations still in Maduro's camp.
"Just look at who's supporting Maduro: China, Russia, Turkey, Cuba, Syria, Nicaragua — a rogue's gallery of dictators and autocrats across the ideological spectrum," noted Frida Ghitis for Politico. "They don't want to see democratic uprisings succeed, and in the case of China and Russia, they don't want to lose the billions Venezuela owes them."
At the same time, the relatively diverse mix of governments that joined Trump's recognition of Guaido tells another story. From the right-wing President of Colombia to the centre-left Government in Canada, many feel that Maduro's exit will start the long process of dragging Venezuela out of the abyss. Maduro has presided over a grim
economic collapse and an unprecedented hemispheric refugee crisis.
The way forward remains perilous, as historians Federico Finchelstein and Pablo Piccato laid out this week in the Washington Post. Maduro could try to brutally clamp down on the opposition, perhaps precipitating more direct US intervention.
Or the military could step in to remove Maduro from power but preserve its privileges and powers — not unlike the transition seen in Zimbabwe. Or, animated by American threats and buoyed by Russian mercenaries and Chinese loans, Maduro clings grimly to power and consolidates control.
Infinitely preferable, they say, would be a negotiated solution. "Although several Latin American and European countries have withdrawn their recognition of Maduro's Government, Mexico and Uruguay have not," Finchelstein and Piccato noted. "As such, they could establish a public negotiation with the different parties, preventing both a civil war and foreign intervention."
For Venezuelans themselves, change can't come sooner — but few want to see it delivered by US force. "I want a change — but not through a coup or an intervention," Naikary Agresot, 17, a student in a working-class and heavily pro-regime community in western Caracas, said to the Guardian newspaper. "I wish Maduro could understand that things have gotten out of control and make room for someone who truly can change the country."
Guaido himself has said that he does not support a military intervention, an option the White House has refused to take off the table. But the fault lines are deepening.
At least 40 people are believed to have been killed and more than 800 detained during protests in the past week. US sanctions are biting into an enfeebled economy, raising the prospect of even worse food shortages.
In response, Maduro's Government has now blocked Guaido from leaving the country and frozen his assets, moves approved by the country's Supreme Court on Wednesday. It has also vowed vague retaliatory measures against the US.
"The world is clear on what's happening in Venezuela," Guaido said on Wednesday, shrugging off the regime's moves against him. "Let's not desist because of threats and persecution. We will continue to advance in our fight."
New York Times: Nuclear and military facilities, gas and oil depots have been targeted.