People gather during a protest on January 8 in Tehran, Iran. Demonstrations have been ongoing since December. Photo / Getty Images
President Donald Trump signalled that he would assist anti-government protesters in Iran as the White House convened top officials today to weigh military options.
The United States President indicated that the time for negotiations with Tehran had passed, saying in a social media post that he had “cancelled all meetings” with Iranian officials.
Some political allies are warning against the dangers of entanglement in another overseas conflict and the domestic costs of abandoning the “America First” foreign policy Trump campaigned on.
The arguments against a strike include the danger of an accident or failure as the US military and spy services attempt more high-risk operations, as well as the possibility that the fall of the Iranian Government could lead to a more militant regime or another failed state in the Middle East, according to former officials and people close to the White House.
At the same time, the people said, sceptics of a strike are hoping to avoid the open acrimony leading up to the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites in June, which stoked divisions in Trump’s base over the wisdom of intervention in a Middle Eastern conflict and the meaning of his “America First” slogan.
The National Security Council metwithout Trump to prepare options for the President, a person familiar with the meeting said. Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials are presenting options to Trump without preference, the person said.
The President has repeatedly threatened that the US could use military force if the Government in Tehran keeps killing demonstrators.
Other options could include increased economic pressure on the Government, cyberattacks and stepped-up support for the protest movement.
Reports from activists and opposition news sites covering Iran, which have been hampered by the Government’s total shutdown of internet and communications, estimate upward of 2000 deaths from the protests - now in their third week.
“HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” Trump wrote online, adding an acronym for “Make Iran Great Again” and echoing an earlier post from Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican-South Carolina), who has been encouraging Trump to intervene.
Asked to clarify during an appearance in Michigan, Trump said, “You’re going to have to figure that one out”. He later repeated the message to the Detroit Economic Club.
“The President has made his position clear, and he has demonstrated with Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve that he means what he says,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, using the code names for the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Trump has announced 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. The Administration has not elaborated on how that would be enforced.
Despite the public sabre-rattling, Trump has sounded less certain in private, according to the people close to the White House. Some described him as less enthusiastic than before the bombings in June. Another called it “a coin flip”.
“We don’t care about making Iran great again,” Stephen Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser who has been one of the few Republican voices publicly advocating against a strike, said on his popular online talk show. “Israel and the US in there, you’re just going to prolong the problem.”
Unlike in Trump’s first term, when some of his national security advisers came from the more hawkish tradition of Republican foreign policy, most of the President’s current advisers are less inclined to intervene in the Middle East.
Vance supported Trump’s decision in June to bomb Iran’s main nuclear facilities but has been wary of being dragged into a deeper Middle East entanglement, said two people close to him.
Trump was briefed last week on military options and a range of other scenarios, according to a former US official familiar with the matter.
They include cyberattacks on the Iranian government’s infrastructure, measures to counter Iran’s blocking of protesters’ communications, and strikes on targets associated with Iran’s repressive security services.
Two European officials said their countries were asked by the Trump Administration yesterday to share intelligence on possible targets within Iran.
“We don’t have any indications that President Trump will target nuclear facilities. It is more likely that he will go after the leadership of organisations and forces that are responsible and involved in the killings of protesters,” one of the officials said.
Iran’s ability to detect incoming aircraft or missiles was dramatically degraded by Israeli air attacks in October 2024 that took out many of Tehran’s advanced Russian S-300 air defence systems and other military capabilities.
In June, Iran’s defences were further compromised by Israeli strikes during a 12-day war that also saw the US bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Trump on December 29, seeking support for more strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, amid indications that Tehran is seeking to rebuild them after the June war.
Trump reacted coolly in a news conference after the meeting, and the current consultations around US options are more closely attuned to supporting the protesters’ calls for regime change than countering any resumption of Iran’s nuclear programme.
The Pentagon is concerned about potential Iranian retaliation, said a person familiar with the Administration’s thinking. Aircraft, ships and Special Operations personnel were pulled from Central Command, which oversees US forces in the Middle East, in the weeks leading up to the Maduro mission.
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier left its home port of Norfolk last June to sail to the Mediterranean in support of Israel. It was redirected by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Caribbean in November and it remains there, US Southern Command said yesterday.
The other two deployed carriers at the moment are in the Indo-Pacific; as of yesterday, the USS George Washington was in port in Japan and the USS Abraham Lincoln was in the South China Sea, and there were no indications it was going to be deployed to the region, a US official said.
The administration right now “just doesn’t have the assets in the region to do a full kinetic strike without risking retaliation”, said the person familiar with the Administration’s thinking. “We had to pull a lot of our assets out of Centcom to support Venezuela.”
But it does have options. There are multiple destroyers nearby capable of firing long-range missiles, and presumably ballistic missile submarines.
Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine has shown he is willing to use unexpected strike platforms, such as the deployment of US-based B-2 stealth bombers that flew 36 hours straight to strike Iran during Operation Midnight Hammer.
As concern grows in the region, Oman, Qatar and other governments whose officials have served as go-betweens in the past have reached out to both sides, several regional officials said, but they have got no response from the Administration.
US and Israeli demands of Tehran have increased to include dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile system and ending all support for proxy militias in the region, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“We’ve always been open to direct conversations if everything was on the table,” a second person familiar with administration deliberations said. But for now, they said, the Administration is focused on other avenues of pressure and “there is nothing going on” in the direction of talks.
Gulf allies have been encouraging the Administration to pursue negotiations, out of concern that provoking the collapse of the Iranian Government could spark a civil war or create a large, heavily armed failed state similar to Libya or Syria.
Former officials also warned that toppling the Iranian regime and unseating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could empower hardliners who would be more aggressive toward the US and Israel, including by accelerating efforts to build a nuclear bomb.
A third European official said Iran’s leaders are keenly aware that Trump faces potential backlash from his Maga movement if he uses military force, and are offering negotiations to stall for time.
“Should President Trump step back from exerting pressure and instead enter negotiations while protesters are being killed and arrested, the regime may not only survive this moment but emerge emboldened, acting with even greater impunity and brutality,” the official said.
Public opposition on the right has been more muted than in June, when former Fox News host Tucker Carlson loudly criticised US involvement, prompting a brushback from Trump. Trump said Carlson later apologised.
Trump’s open-ended commitment in Venezuela hangs over the National Security Council as officials consider another risky military action that could leave a country with an unclear future.
The Maduro raid avoided the loss of any American lives or equipment but could have ended in disaster when one of the attack helicopters was hit.
“He hasn’t had a blemish on the military side yet,” one of the people close to the White House said. “That’s going to come if you keep pressing this stuff.”
- John Hudson, Dan Lamothe, Karen DeYoung and Souad Mekhennet contributed to this report.
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