The Iran-linked militias have also become central players in the Iraqi Government, earning billions of dollars from state coffers, operating extensive business networks and holding more power than ever before.
There is much at stake if these groups become a target, Middle East analysts say.
“These groups have become so integrated into the Iraqi state in one way or another, whether it’s through business dealings, whether it is through politics. Why would these people give up on that?” asked Lahib Higel, the Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Iraq.
Tensions may reach a point where the groups turn to violence, she said, “but these groups are going to stay quiet for as long as they can”.
The militias in Iraq have long been an important part of Iran’s sprawling network across the region of allies and proxy forces, which also include Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
That formidable network was built by General Qasem Soleimani, who ran Iran’s Quds Force, the division of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external operations, and whom President Donald Trump had assassinated in January 2020 in Baghdad.
Unlike Hezbollah and the Houthis, Iraq’s militias had already learned the lessons of direct confrontation with the US, experts say.
The top Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the same drone strike as Soleimani, forcing other senior leaders into hiding as Iran and the US traded ballistic missiles and airstrikes on Iraqi soil.
Over the following years, the Iraqi militias adapted from top-down, Iranian-driven groups to ones with greater autonomy.
“The assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis removed a strong lever of control and influence that Iran had over several of these groups,” said Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at the New York-based Century International.
“Not having that Godfather figure has meant that these groups have charted their own path.”
Iraq’s official network of militia factions, known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces, dates back to 2014, when tens of thousands of men across the mostly Shia south answered calls from Iraq’s prime minister and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country’s top Shia religious authority, to join the fight against Isis (Islamic State) militants.
Today, the groups are marbled through Iraq’s ruling institutions and have become economic powerhouses and political enforcers of the political regime.
Middle East analysts and Iraqi officials say Iraq has remained mostly aloof from the conflict pitting Israel and the US against Iran because of shared interests between the armed groups and their Iranian backers.
After the US bombers transiting Iraqi airspace struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia that has previously targeted US troops, issued only a muted statement, noting that Iraq’s inability to control its airspace made the country vulnerable.
“The American forces in Iraq paved the way for this assault by opening Iraqi airspace,” the group said.
“If it is said that we do not want Iraq to be a battleground, then it is incumbent upon us to restrain the role of foreign forces present on Iraqi soil and controlling its skies.”
Iraq’s military said the following day that a swarm of small drones had targeted six army bases but reached only two, causing damage to radar systems at Camp Taji, north of Baghdad, and the Imam Ali base in Dhi Qar governorate, but no casualties. No US forces were present at either one.
The Iraqi Army said in a statement that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had ordered an investigation into the incident, without ascribing blame to any group.
The militias’ tempered response reflects their desire not to be dragged into the sort of conflict that left Hezbollah eviscerated in Lebanon, Higel said.
“They don’t want to face the same fate,” she said.
“However much they support Iran in rhetoric, we’ve seen the fissures. They had already started when Soleimani was killed, but they’ve really accelerated after the 7th of October” attacks in Israel.
If their standing took a blow, it could put in jeopardy about US$3.5 billion allocated in the Iraqi budget, according to the Finance Ministry, to pay militia salaries and provide other forms of support.
Iran, similarly, benefits from the quiet next door.
“Iraq has remained outside the conflict primarily due to Iran’s desire to keep it that way,” said a senior Iraqi official who, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject.
“They understand that Iraq’s stability is extremely important to their national security and also to their economic situation.”
As Western governments have sought to isolate Iran with sanctions, Iraq has become its economic lung.
Iraq is not only a major trading partner, but Iran has used Iraqi currency exchanges to transfer money and Iraqi ports to mix and rebrand sanctioned oil products, according to researchers at the Chatham House international affairs think-tank, providing Tehran with precious access to the international economy.
Iraq has also provided safe haven to other Iran-backed groups as they come under fire, the researchers found.
After Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in September, dozens of senior Hezbollah business figures travelled to Iraq, where the group had made significant financial investments.
Jiyad, of Century International, said the pro-Iran armed groups are likely to remain on the sidelines for now.
“It may be that the Iranians see that as an option to deploy later,” he said. “I think the Iranians are not trying to play all their cards at once.”
Likewise, the senior Iraqi official said, these groups “are Iran’s last card”.
An official with the pro-Iran Asaib al-Haq group, which has a role in the Iraqi Government, said Iraq’s armed factions remained braced in “watchful anticipation”.
This official said, “We do not wish to be dragged into the war, although the resistance factions are ready to respond … This will, however, depend on the course of events and the impact on our country.”
