Protesters gather outside the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence, demanding an end to the war and the return of Israeli hostages, in west Jerusalem on September 03. Photo / Getty Images
Rarely has Israel looked so isolated.
Old friends in Europe have turned against it.
Newer ones in the Arab world are questioning whether they made a mistake.
Donald Trump may remain steadfast, but Israel is haemorrhaging support among ordinary Americans.
With allies racing to recognise Palestinian statehood – Britain among them – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cast Israel as standing defiantly alone against a hostile world.
Even before world leaders gathered at the United Nations General Assembly to condemn his expanding war in Gaza, the Israeli Prime Minister had been urging his people to embrace a new reality.
“Limitless migration” had produced “very belligerent” Muslim minorities in Europe, he argued in a speech last week, forcing once-loyal allies to adopt anti-Israel policies.
Under threat of sanctions and arms embargoes, Israel had no choice but to embrace economic and military self-sufficiency, becoming a “super-Sparta”, a fortress closed off to the world.
The remarks unnerved Israel’s financial markets and provoked outrage in a country that has prided itself on being a “start-up nation” rooted in globalisation and liberalism.
“Isolation is not fate,” retorted Yair Lapid, Israel’s opposition leader. “It’s a product of a wrong-headed and failed policy by Netanyahu and his Government.”
Netanyahu later claimed he had been misunderstood.
Yet few dispute his description of Israel’s standing abroad, even if many blame him for worsening it by prolonging a war that two thirds of Israelis want ended, according to polls.
For some in his coalition, isolation is a price worth paying.
Indifferent to Western censure, they have proposed responding to Britain, France, Canada, Australia, Belgium and Portugal’s recognition of a Palestinian state by making it impossible to establish one.
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s Finance Minister, recently called for annexing all but 18% of the occupied West Bank, leaving its six cities as isolated Palestinian islands.
Such a move would kill off the two-state solution, precisely what Britain’s recognition of Palestine is meant to revive.
On Tuesday, Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, warned Israel against further encroachment.
European displeasure has not cowed Israeli hawks, but they are more sensitive to unease among Arab partners.
In 2020, during Trump’s first term as United States President, Israel normalised relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan under the Abraham Accords, which have become central to its regional security.
The UAE relationship is crucial, both to counter Iran and for trade. Bilateral commerce has surged from £150 million ($346m) in 2020 to £2.2 billion last year.
This month, however, the UAE warned that any annexation in the West Bank would be a “red line” ending regional integration, widely seen as a threat to suspend the accords.
Israel’s standing in the Gulf has already been shaken, first by its war with Iran that some in the region saw as unnecessarily reckless and then by its air strikes on Qatar on September 9, a failed attempt to kill Hamas’ political leadership.
The operation convinced many Gulf states that Netanyahu’s ambitions pose a significant security threat to the region, eclipsing the danger from a now-weakened Iran.
Israel’s transformation “from David to Goliath”, has left regional leaders increasingly seeing it as “the enemy”, said Mohammed Baharoon, director-general of B’huth, a Dubai-based think-tank that advises the Emirati government.
“If you look at it through the friend and foe prism, you can see that Iran has turned from a foe to a friend and Israel from a friend to a foe,” he said.
The UAE’s warning has reportedly prompted a rethink within Netanyahu’s Cabinet, with annexation talks temporarily halted, the Financial Times reported.
Western relations are also deteriorating. So far, European measures have been limited: Palestinian recognition aside, they have mostly involved arms restrictions.
As the world’s eighth-biggest arms exporter and a close ally of the US, Israel has options. Yet Europe still has leverage.
Nearly a third of Israel’s imports come from the European Union. A full ban on military supplies would therefore bite.
Germany provides much of Israel’s ammunition and tank engines, Britain spare parts for its F35 partners and Italy supplies helicopters.
It is therefore a “complete fantasy” for Netanyahu to suggest that Israel could sunder itself from European supply chains and achieve self-sufficiency, says Helit Barel, a former director of Israel’s National Security Council.
“We don’t have the raw materials these kinds of industries need at home,” she said.
“Components needed for weapons system and the whole process of putting them together is not necessarily done in Israel.
“This vision of being able to do it all yourself, and this vision that takes the EU out of the picture is completely non-realistic.”
Sanctions on dual-use goods – components that can be used in both military and civilian systems – would strike even harder at Israel’s technology sector, which accounts for a fifth of GDP.
The economy is already straining.
Military spending, proportionally the world’s second highest since the Gaza war began two years ago, has driven up debt and triggered multiple credit downgrades.
Growth has plunged from 6.5% in 2022 to 0.9% last year. Recession looms.
Beyond economics, Israel is sliding into cultural isolation.
A UN commission of inquiry last week accused it of genocide in Gaza, deepening its pariah status.
Israelis are increasingly excluded from festivals and academic events, while tourists face growing abuse abroad.
Eric Cantona, the former footballer, has called for a sporting boycott reminiscent of the one imposed on apartheid South Africa.
“Clubs everywhere must refuse to play Israeli teams. Current players everywhere must refuse to play against Israeli teams,” he said.
For now, US backing insulates Israel from the world consequences. Trump has been more loyal to Netanyahu than any predecessor.
But public opinion in the US is shifting. Polls show more than half of American adults now view Israel negatively, with disenchantment rising among both Democrats and Republicans.
This loss of faith may not matter immediately, but if Israel becomes a domestic political liability, the £2.8b in annual US military aid could be at risk under a future president less sympathetic than Trump.
Should that happen, Israel’s image as the Goliath of the Middle East would quickly fade, leaving the country dangerously exposed.
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