Anxieties persist despite Beijing's growing power

China has heralded the lunar new year with the usual deafening, dazzling pyrotechnics. But outside the country, some fear the year of the tiger will produce another kind of fireworks, as a newly confident world power asserts itself globally.

"China is getting stronger and stronger. You can see it from the happy faces coming to buy firecrackers," declared stallholder Han Jing, as she handed out rockets and other wares from her busy booth in north Beijing.

"In the economic crisis, it was not affected as badly as other countries. Our Chinese people have confidence that it will overtake every other country."

Grabbing a bumper packet of explosives, her customer Zhou Liyuan agreed.

"At least the British drug smuggler [Akmal Shaikh] was executed. In the past, there would have been more negotiations. There are a lot of conflicts between China and the US now, and we have a stronger point of view this time."

Recent weeks have seen disputes with the West over everything from trade to climate change. In Europe and the US, business people and officials grumble privately of the increasing assertiveness - arrogance, say many - of this growing power.

"I think 2009 has been a turning point," said Professor Feng Zhongping, director of European relations at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

"If you say China is more confident, that would be accurate. But I think there have been misunderstandings by the US and European governments and especially the media. I don't think China has become 'prickly'."

From the Western perspective, China has been unwilling to shoulder responsibilities that go with greater international power, failing to press Iran and North Korea on nuclear proliferation or make a serious commitment to tackling climate change, and punishing other countries with its artificially low currency.

It has brushed aside criticism on human rights and sought to export censorship, pressing overseas film festivals to drop documentaries on Tibet and Xinjiang.

But some of the recent tension has been overplayed. President Barack Obama's predecessors also met the Dalai Lama and China objected in each case. The two are to meet on Friday. Analysts also say Beijing has exerted more pressure on North Korea of late.

Beijing believes the West is making unrealistic demands, expecting it not only to understand other countries' priorities but also to compromise its own interests.

"Some people's expectation of China was that, with economic development, foreign policy and political reform would become westernised," said Feng. "A lot of people don't think a responsible great power just does what the US expects it to do."

China National Association of International Studies director Victor Gao said the US shopping list was increasingly long.

"The arms sales to Taiwan and the visit of the Dalai Lama take place at a time they need help on Iran ... What are the top three issues for America? If they put Tibet or Taiwan in there, I would be amazed," he said.

Elsewhere in the world, China's rise is being met with as much enthusiasm as fear. Neighbours may be alarmed by its growing might, but there is greater enthusiasm on other continents.

Professor Deborah Brautigam, whose recent book The Dragon's Gift examines the Chinese presence in Africa, said that, while some there saw China as "the new colonialist", others had welcomed it.

"African leaders and commentators expressing this view are not naive about Chinese interest in Africa. But they like to hear the Chinese talk about investment opportunities instead of aid, and are intrigued by models such as the resource-backed infrastructure loans," she said.

Meanwhile, analysts predict further tension, rather than a spectacular confrontation, between China and the West. Gao argues that the stakes are too high for both sides.

"The decision-makers in this town are cautious, prudent people, not because they are afraid of the other side but because they know increasing friction is bad for China, bad for the US and bad for the world," he said.

Beijing may be increasingly confident, but it does not yet believe its smooth ascendancy is a given. Underneath the veneer of confidence lie persistent anxieties about the true strength of its economy and society, and how to handle issues such as soaring inequality and endemic corruption.

And at street level others are deeply cynical about its prospects.

"We're a nuclear power, but are we prepared to use military power against anyone?" complained another of Han's fireworks buyers, who declined to give his name.

"I'm not sure whether China is stronger as a country - but its citizens aren't."

If such pessimistic judgments prove well-founded, the Chinese political establishment may face as much pressure from within as without, as it attempts to consolidate superpower status in 2010.Observer