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LONDON - International attempts to cut the pollution that causes global warming have gone into reverse just as evidence mounts that it is putting the planet in grave danger, a startling official report will reveal.
The findings by the United Nations - which will be presented to the
world's governments this week at the start of crucial negotiations about whether to tackle climate change seriously - shows that after reducing emissions during the 1990s, the world's richest countries have increased them since the start of the millennium.
The alarming revelation starkly contrasts with the conclusion of last week's Stern report that "strong and urgent collective action" is needed if worldwide disaster is to be avoided.
The 600-page report by Sir Nicholas Stern, head of the Government Economic Service and a former chief economist of the World Bank, predicted that without substantial and rapid cuts in pollution, global warming will "take humans into unknown territory" and "transform the physical geography of the world".
Yet another report, this one by the Institute for Public Policy Research, the Government's favourite think-tank, concludes that Sir Nicholas has not gone nearly far enough and that an even greater "Herculean" effort will be needed if we are "to have a high chance of avoiding dangerous climate change".
All three reports will greatly increase the pressure on the international negotiations that open in Nairobi today, a year late, over what will replace the present targets for cutting pollution. These were set under the Kyoto Protocol, which will expire in 2012.
The UN report, compiled by the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), shows that the total amount of greenhouse gases - including methane, nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants as well as carbon dioxide - emitted by the world's industrialised countries has risen by 2.4 per cent since the turn of the millennium.
This rise has partially reversed a cut of 5.6 per cent between 1990 and 2000, which largely took place even before the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997.
The report adds that while 23 countries - more than half of the world's developed nations - reduced emissions during the 1990s, only seven have managed to do so since.
Yvo de Boer, the UNFCCC's executive secretary, calls the findings "worrying".
"This means that industrialised countries will need to intensify their efforts to implement strong policies which reduce greenhouse gas emissions."
The report says that the industrialised countries can still meet the 5.2 per cent reduction target set under the Kyoto Protocol for 2012.
But the increasing pollution since 2000 makes it clear that a radical change of tack will be necessary.
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