Analysis: Trump's behaviour, senate races put squeeze on his party

United States President Donald Trump listens, during a campaign rally in support of Republican candidates, to Senator Kelly Loeffler in Dalton, Georgia. Photo / AP

Opinion

It's a toss-up as to who will be under more pressure this week - the people counting votes in Georgia's Senate election, or United States Vice-President Mike Pence.

Georgia is on many people's minds today as voters in the southern state essentially get to decide control of the US Senate in two tight runoff races.

But it isn't the only theatre for election drama this week.

Tomorrow, Pence has the unenviable task of presiding over the usually ceremonial count of Electoral College votes in Congress, while under pressure from his bullying boss. Dozens of Republican representatives and senators plan a futile challenge to the results. Other Republicans have spoken out against their attempt.

President Donald Trump's incendiary attempts to overthrow his 2020 presidential election loss to President-elect Joe Biden - which have involved failed lawsuits over claims of fraud and attempts to heavy state officials - are tearing through his own party.

Pence is meant to utter the facts of who has won the majority of votes for president and vice-president - a reality Trump denies. The President wants Pence to stage a one-man rebellion against the constitution and overturn the results in a few key states, including Georgia.

The certified votes in Georgia were counted three times, including once by hand. Trump lost to the President-elect by 11,779.

Speaking to Trump supporters here in Georgia today.

Quite a few seem to be under the impression some kind of miracle is going to happen on Wednesday and Trump will be able to overturn the election. They didn’t say how, just all the hype about the 6th has people pumped.

— Donie O'Sullivan (@donie) January 5, 2021

At the weekend, Trump was taped pushing Georgia's Republican secretary of state to "find" votes. "All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state."

At a rally in the state yesterday, Trump drew laughs from supporters when he said: "I hope Mike Pence comes through for us. I hope that our great Vice-President comes through for us. He's a great guy. Of course, if he doesn't come through, I won't like him quite as much."

Republican politicians are doing what party officials tend to once they have suffered a major loss - fight over their futures. With Trump exiting the stage in two weeks, some are aiming to inherit his mantle, loyal voters, and methods, by sticking resolutely to his shadow. Others are starting to carve out an independent line.

In other countries an actual split could occur and a new party emerge. In the US, a period of Republican instability lies ahead.

Biden has adopted a strategy of letting his opponents go at it, while discovering which Republicans might be prepared to work with him on legislation. But pressure for a reckoning on the Trump years will grow.

The planned act of sedition @HawleyMO and his fellow Republicans have planned this week may seem futile, but it has an endgame. Keep the chaos that is Trumpism alive beyond his loss. It is a new Lost Cause, and we should recognize its dangers. My latest. https://t.co/QF6dR6CPRl

— Jamil Smith (@JamilSmith) January 4, 2021

The party is still favoured to retain control of the Senate.

Should either Kelly Loeffler or David Perdue be returned to the Senate from Georgia, the Republicans would hold a majority in the chamber - enough to stonewall Biden's agenda.

Democratic hopes rest on Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, and the voters who turned the traditionally red Republican state blue for Biden last November.

If both win, the Senate would be tied 50-50 but incoming Vice-President Kamala Harris would be the casting vote, providing the Democrats with control of the presidency and both houses of Congress.

Biden has executive powers he can use to make some changes but it would be a lot harder without Senate control for the new president to make good on ambitious plans.

The stakes are such that yet more challenges to Georgia ballots are likely. The vote counters today will have to be on their toes.