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Home / World

Analysis: Saudi Arabia is becoming less afraid of confronting critics

By Rick Noack analysis
Washington Post·
7 Aug, 2018 06:49 PM6 mins to read

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The Saudi Arabian Embassy is shown in Ottawa, Canada. Saudi Arabia ordered Canadian Ambassador Dennis Horak to leave. Photo / AP

The Saudi Arabian Embassy is shown in Ottawa, Canada. Saudi Arabia ordered Canadian Ambassador Dennis Horak to leave. Photo / AP

On the Canadian Government website, everything appeared to be normal with Saudi Arabia as of today.

The two countries, the site stated, share "common interests on many peace and security issues."

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia constitutes "an important source of foreign students for Canada" and "trade and economic interests continue to be at the forefront of Canada's bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia."

In reality, however, this could not be farther from reality.

After Canada's Foreign Minister expressed alarm at the recent arrest of a Saudi women's rights activist, the kingdom expelled the Canadian ambassador, halted trade and investment deals and ordered up to 12,000 students to return to the kingdom. Flights will be suspended starting next week.

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The measures were part of a seemingly unprecedented diplomatic storm that appeared to have come without a warning, given that Canada is hardly the first Western democracy to criticise the absolute monarchy's human rights record.

But a closer look at Saudi Arabia's responses to foreign criticism under its new crown prince Mohammed bin Salman tells a slightly different story: that Saudi fury didn't come entirely out of nowhere.

"We have witnessed for some time now that Saudi foreign policy has become much more assertive and more muscular," said said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern Politics at the London School of Economics.

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A number of European nations have felt the fallout of Saudi Arabia's new assertiveness in recent years, including Sweden and Germany.

In 2015, the kingdom temporarily recalled its ambassador to Sweden after the Scandinavian nation singled out Saudi writer Raif Badawi's arrest and trial as an example for broader human rights failures in the Middle Eastern monarchy. The activist at the centre of the current Saudi-Canadian dispute is his sister, Samar Badawi, whose arrest was made public last week.

While Western criticism of Saudi practices has often resulted in ambassadors being recalled or statements being issued, Germany was the first nation to feel the tougher approach the Prince now appears to have embraced.

What Saudi Arabia's sanctions on Canada is really about https://t.co/SuZo1C7f8n

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) August 7, 2018

Last November, then-Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said that Europe "could not tolerate the adventurism that has spread there," in remarks that were widely interpreted as criticism of Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Yemen that has cost tens of thousands of lives as well as the strange trip by Lebanon's Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia where he publicly resigned - leading to speculation that he had been kidnapped.

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Saudi Arabia first lashed out at Gabriel over what it said were "shameful and unjustified remarks," and then recalled its ambassador, in the same pattern that played out in Sweden - with a twist. German officials confirmed this year to multiple media outlets that Saudi Arabia had also quietly blacklisted some German companies as a result of the criticism in a rare case of economic retaliation.

In Saudi Arabia, the recent criticism from Germany and Canada appears to have struck a nerve that goes beyond what sparked prior spats.

Officials in Riyadh believe that they have already given enough to those demanding more liberties and tolerance, by allowing women finally to drive and pledging to return to a more "moderate Islam" last October, even as critics have raised doubts over the motives behind the reforms.

London School of Economics Middle East scholar Madawi Al-Rasheed warned last October that measures such as the promotion of a "moderate Islam" were "geared to attract investors and create a feel good factor for a kingdom that had a very bad reputation."

MBS has reformed Saudi Arabia from a monarchy to an idiotocracy. There are many Saudi women and men who are more than capable of providing the country with wise leadership; most of these women and men are either jailed or silenced. Instead, the country is led by a team of idiots.

— İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي (@iyad_elbaghdadi) August 7, 2018

To revive its weakening economy, the crown prince - who assumed power last year - has worked up plans to create a new, futuristic city in the west of Saudi Arabia that he hopes will attract tech companies.

In order to succeed, Mohammed will need to balance the interests of ultraconservatives in his kingdom and of liberals demanding more extensive changes.

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"Arresting some female activists and liberal voices was probably his way of saying: I'm not just trying to crack down on ultra-conservative voices, but also against those who don't play along by rules of game: a gradual top-down reform process," said Middle East scholar Gerges.

"Saudi Arabia's foreign policy is an extension of that domestic balancing act. By confronting Canada, Saudi Arabia is sending the message anyone who interferes in Saudi's internal affairs will face swift and prompt measures," said Gerges.

With the end of the Obama Administration, one of Saudi Arabia's toughest critics disappeared - which has put other Western powers like Germany, France or Canada in a more awkward position.

"Saudi Arabia is shooting itself in the foot. If you want to open up your country to the world, you don't start expelling ambassadors and freezing trade with countries such as Canada"https://t.co/wOvepZezSJ

— Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) August 7, 2018

By suspending at least some ties to nations like Canada and even more important trading partners such as Germany, Saudi Arabia now appears to be imitating an approach China has relatively successfully pursued in recent years: to modernise, but on its own terms.

And in Europe, the current consensus appears to be to play along - at least for now. Germany's new foreign minister has so far refrained from the sort of blunt criticism his predecessor voiced, even though human rights remain on the agenda.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron said during a joint press conference with Mohammed in April that "if there is one chance that his project succeeds, then it's the responsibility of France to accompany him," referring to the Saudi reforms.

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The most cutting official French criticism of Saudi Arabia's human rights record during the crown prince's visit was a rather oblique one: a tweet from Macron showed him with Mohammed discussing French painter Eugene Delacroix's painting Liberty Leading The People. The painting shows a woman with bare breasts and on the revolutionary barricades.

There was no public complaint from Saudi Arabia over the tweet.

Good for Canada and Foreign Minister @cafreeland for standing up to Saudi Arabia on human rights. From Yemen to women's rights, Crown Prince MBS regularly embarrasses his country and his defenders. https://t.co/99yQAzO6GX

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) August 7, 2018

Why is Saudi Arabia sanctioning Canada? I offer three explanations, all of which lead to the same conclusion: the sanctions will be in place for a while. https://t.co/89dmrkfW1e

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) August 7, 2018
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