In a country with hundreds of political prisoners, Guaido's freedom could come off as astonishing. For Maduro, boxed in by US sanctions and despised by many in the crisis-ridden country, giving Guaido room to manoeuver makes sense.
The longer Guaido and his allies strive and fail to turn frustration into full-blown rebellion, the better the regime's chances it will stay in power.
The battered opposition will, that betting goes, once again fade into irrelevance.
"I think Maduro understands that, strategically, it's in his interest to watch Guaido unravel on his own and be picked apart by members of his own opposition coalition," said Geoff Ramsey, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a human-rights organisation.
Some who participated in demonstrations today - which again failed to win over the military and drew far fewer people than the opposition had hoped - had other theories.
"Maduro knows that if he does something to Guaido that the US is going to do something worse," said Ida Romero, banging on a pot in protest. Vixa Ramirez, an accountant, agreed: "They're scared to grab him."
In Washington, National Security Adviser John Bolton said he was "very confident" that Maduro wouldn't remain in power much longer.
US President Donald Trump has bet heavily on Guaido, and US officials had sought to undermine Maduro even as Guaido's military uprising fizzled.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNN that the Venezuelan President had been preparing to flee until allies in the Russian Government persuaded him to stay. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said today that Pompeo's claim wasn't true.
The confusion was a prelude to marches that already had been scheduled, and Maduro called on his own faithful to turn out. He took digs at the US on Twitter, praising Venezuelans celebrating May Day "with a great gathering which will say NO to the coup and yankee interference" and reviling "the empire and its lackeys."
Guaido had asked his supporters to demonstrate at 14 different points across Caracas. But the crowds paled in comparison with the mega rallies earlier this year. Hundreds of national guardsmen blocked highways and major arteries.
In the working-class neighbourhood of El Paraiso, security forces loosed volleys of tear gas on about 150 protesters. They scattered behind trees and coughed on the clouds of burning gas, returning when soldiers left, banging pots and pans and blowing whistles. The Government's security forces were rougher and more aggressive than the day before.
Crowds were larger on Caracas's wealthier east side, the traditional staging ground for anti-government unrest. Thousands took to many of the same streets where protesters and soldiers squared off hours before. Small groups of masked demonstrators again poured onto the city's main highway to hurl stones at La Carlota, which saw some of yesterday's fiercest skirmishes.
Guaido addressed several hundred supporters outside a shopping centre in the El Marques section. He said the opposition's biggest actions were yet to come and called on public workers to strike tomorrow.
"The regime thinks we've reached our peak pressure. They're mistaken," Guaido said. "Every day from now on, we will have protests until we reach freedom."
For years, resisting Maduro has come with great risk. In fact, one reason Guaido became the head of the opposition-dominated National Assembly in January was because so many other politicians had been exiled or arrested.
His mentor and chief adviser in this year's anti-Maduro campaign, Leopoldo Lopez, was sentenced to almost 14 years in military prison after he spearheaded major street unrest in 2014. After he was transferred to house arrest in 2017, intelligence police made regular patrols.
But yesterday, Lopez was out, making a dramatic appearance beside Guaido at a rally. Lopez - who said his captors had freed him - was on the streets throughout the day. By dusk, though, he had taken refuge in the Spanish Embassy. Today, he was largely unseen, if at all.
Since Maduro became President in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has spiraled into misery, with the mainstay oil industry hobbled by corruption and mismanagement, hyperinflation ravaging the economy and malnutrition common.
What Guaido called the "final phase" of the effort to end Maduro's rule began yesterday, when the lawmaker appeared on a highway near the La Carlota military airbase in Caracas and declared Maduro finished. He was flanked by a dozen masked soldiers who had broken ranks with the regime, and by opposition politicians.
While many politicians have stridently criticised Maduro at rallies, it was viewed as a brazen step for them to endorse insurrection openly. The septuagenarian Henry Ramos Allup, the former head of the National Assembly, choked on tear gas as forces loyal to Maduro dispersed the crowds.
At a pro-Maduro rally downtown, Oscar Flores, who works for the Government, said he understood why the Government hasn't bothered to arrest Guaido: It's because he's a loser.
"The coup d'état was a failure," Flores said. "The opposition calls people to the streets because they want problems. We want peace."
- Bloomberg
