Miami-Dade County led the outflow, losing 67,418 residents, despite strong international immigration. Photo / Getty Images
Miami-Dade County led the outflow, losing 67,418 residents, despite strong international immigration. Photo / Getty Images
The American neighbourhoods with the highest risk of floods are again losing residents.
For the first time since 2019, high-risk counties lost domestic residents, with 30,000 more people relocating to other places in the country than moved in, according to a new Redfin report. It’s a sharp reversal from thepandemic years, when remote workers flocked to coastal areas and Sun Belt cities. Some of those counties, however, still had a total increase in population as immigration from overseas remained strong.
The online real estate platform analysed 310 high-flood-risk counties identified by First Street, a climate-risk modelling firm, and cross-referenced the data with US Census Bureau population estimates that covered the 12 months starting in July 2023. Of those counties, 132 saw net outflows while 178 saw net inflows – but the number of people leaving exceeded those arriving.
The exodus hit hardest in major coastal metropolitan areas. Miami-Dade County led the nation, losing 67,418 residents – a sharp jump from the prior year’s outflow of 50,637. Harris County, Texas, home to Houston, shed 31,165 people. Kings County, New York, which includes Brooklyn, lost 28,158 residents. Orleans Parish, Louisiana, where New Orleans is located and 99% of homes face high flood risk, saw 4950 residents leave. By comparison, low-flood-risk counties gained 35,941 people, the biggest increase since 2019.
In a separate survey asking people for their motivation for leaving, Redfin found climate risk was more of a motivating factor for Florida residents than Texas residents, who were more likely to cite cost as a reason. Florida has been hit hard in recent years by rising insurance premiums, surging HOA fees and special assessments as a result of the collapse of Surfside, a 12-storey building, that killed nearly 100 people in 2021. These factors have made coastal living particularly financially taxing in the Sunshine State.
Hurricane Helene, which caused an estimated US$93 million ($165.2m) in damage to Pinellas County in Florida last year, also left lasting impacts. It triggered the county’s first population net outflow in years. Some displaced residents moved to neighbouring Pasco County, where flood risk is lower, while others left the state entirely.
Immigration counterbalanced some of the domestic migration losses. In fact, many flood-prone counties continue growing because of people moving in from other countries. More than 120,000 international arrivals to Miami-Dade County more than made up for those who left. Six of the 10 high-flood-risk counties with the largest domestic outflows still posted overall population gains.
But the Donald Trump administration’s aggressive stance on deporting immigrants could change that in 2025, according to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
“Many of the Americans who left flood-prone areas last year were replaced by immigrants, who in the past were able to evacuate to shelters when disaster struck,” said Fairweather. “But with the Government cracking down on immigration enforcement, a lot of immigrants are now hesitant to leave their homes during storms because they are afraid they could be detained.”
Redfin noted that the flood-prone counties still attracting domestic residents tended to be the slightly less risky ones. Counties with the biggest inflows have a median home price of US$376,026 and 36% of homes facing high flood risk. Counties losing the most people have median prices of US$437,239, with 44% of homes in danger zones.
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