Alexander Gillespie: Iran's nuclear concessions do make world safer

Iran has maintained its programme is peaceful. Photo / AP

Opinion

One of the biggest deals of the decade has just been concluded. The sanctions on the Iranian banking, energy and defence industries are to be lifted. They have caused their economy to shrink by close to 2 per cent per year, its currency to shrink by 66 per cent since 2006 and inflation to rise by more than 40 per cent.

These sanctions were imposed by the international community because Iran has probably been pursuing activities designed to give itself nuclear weapons. The know-how was probably achieved by 2003. The material needed for the explosion, either highly enriched uranium or plutonium, has taken much longer to produce.

The amount of plutonium needed to make the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki was about the size of a softball. For highly enriched uranium, about 20kg are needed to make a standard weapon. In both instances, assuming the material is not obtained from illegal sources, it is not easy nor quick to generate from scratch. This is despite Iran possessing several research sites, two uranium mines, at least three known uranium enrichment plants as well as a heavy water research reactor near Arak.

Iran has maintained its programme is peaceful. The governing body in this area, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has not agreed with this assessment after finding Iran had systematically failed to meet its obligations not to attempt to make a nuclear weapon since 2003.

The sanctions which followed through the Security Council in 2006 have remained on the books as negotiations to end them have continually failed because of further and ongoing unanswered questions about Iran's nuclear programme. To add fuel to the fire, in 2014 Iran made an agreement with Russia for the building of up to eight new nuclear reactors. This came at a time when it was estimated Iran was probably about two to three months away from making a nuclear bomb if it tried hard.

The negotiations achieved a breakthrough over the weekend. The catalyst for this breakthrough is all of the wars in the Middle East. Although Iran is nominally on the right side of the fence in fighting Islamic State in Iraq, across the border in Syria it is on the wrong side as its actions have directly contributed to the survival of Assad's regime.

It is also on the wrong side of the fence with its support for the Houthi rebels which have been at the forefront of turning Yemen into yet another failed state. In all of these instances, the possibilities of Shia-based Iran going head to head against most of its Sunni neighbours, as opposed to fighting by proxy, is high.

With this much pressure surrounding them, the Iranians have opted to remove one of their sources of tension. In doing so, they have reached an unprecedented deal. Iran has agreed it will reduce its present collection of centrifuges used to make highly enriched uranium by two thirds, and those that remain, will be of less advanced models.

They will also reduce their stockpile of low enriched uranium which is used as a feedstock for bomb making material. They will stop enrichment at their underground site for 15 years. International inspectors will be allowed unprecedented access to all parts of the nuclear industry in terms of facilities, supply chain and anything that appears suspicious. Their heavy water reactor at Arak will be rebuilt so as not to produce weapons grade plutonium.

These steps should restrict Iran to taking at least one year to make a bomb if it so decides. Assuming all the parties ratify the agreement, if all of these terms are met the world just became a safer place. If the compliance by Iran cannot be verified, the truth will come out in a very short space of time and the world will face even greater risks than it does at present, in a region where few are trustworthy.

• Alexander Gillespie is pro vice-chancellor (research) and professor of law at the University of Waikato