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Home / World

After the jokes - a statesman

By Catherine Field
NZ Herald·
16 Jan, 2015 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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Hollande has earned praise for the way he has handled the crisis. Photo / AP

Hollande has earned praise for the way he has handled the crisis. Photo / AP

French President Francois Hollande appeared like a different leader as he dealt with this month’s terror attacks. Catherine Field asks if the change can last

Widely derided as gutless and indecisive barely two weeks ago, President Francois Hollande has gained admiration for the sure-footed leadership he has shown during France's greatest terrorism crisis.

Without making a testosterone show, Hollande ordered special forces to "neutralise" three hostage-taking jihadists who murdered 17 people, including cartoonists at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, which had mocked the Prophet Muhammad.

Previously lampooned for making stodgy, technocratic speeches, Hollande found the simple, strong and sober words to comfort a shocked and grieving nation.

Without fanfare for himself, he announced a rally to defend liberty that brought 3.7 million on to the streets, crowned by a march in Paris that drew nearly 50 heads of state and government - a show of defiance and a show of support.

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This week, addressing families and colleagues of the three police officers killed in the attacks, Hollande warned that the jihadist threat "is still there, inside and outside".

But, he declared, "Our great and beautiful France will never break, will never yield, never bend".

At the start of the year, Hollande's status was close to that of a national joke.

A product of the elite school system that cranks out top civil servants and business chiefs, he became the Socialist Party's champion by accident, after frontrunner Dominique Strauss-Kahn was toppled in a sex scandal.

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His 2015 New Year's address to the nation, at just over the halfway point in his five-year term, was as flat and as bland as a three-day-old crepe. Opinion polls credited him with just 13 per cent of public support, the worst in France's history.

Today, like Margaret Thatcher at the time of the 1982 Falklands War, and George W. Bush after 9/11, Hollande is discovering the advantages of being a leader at a time of national crisis.

"Eighty per cent of French people say [Hollande] handled the attacks in a statesman-like manner. That does not mean he now has an 80 per cent approval rating, but he clearly regained popularity," Jean-Yves Camus, an analyst at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) in Paris, told the Weekend Herald.

"Hollande's problem was he did not seem fit to lead the country in a situation of domestic crisis. He has shown that he was probably better in times of strife than in his everyday approach of a normal situation."

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Among those sounding the applause are critics such as Greens leader Cecile Duflot, who paid tribute to Hollande's "dignity, solemnity and firm handling" of the emergency.

Rivals such as Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative who Hollande defeated in 2012, and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, are keeping their lips zipped. At a time of national crisis, no one looks good if they engage in grubby politicking.

But can the surge last?

Sceptics will say that once the fear factor recedes, it will be business as usual. From the left, Hollande will face renewed sniping over an economic policy that is austerity in all but name. From the right, Sarkozy and Le Pen, each vying for the conservative and nationalist vote, will be making attacks on immigration and Muslim integration.

Others, though, are not so sure.

"This is not yet a turning point - it's too early to tell - but it could be made into one," Bruno Jeanbart, of the polling organisation OpinionWay told the Weekend Herald.

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"It is an incredible opportunity for him to change his image profoundly. Without it, Hollande would have had a very hard time. He needs to seize the moment."

Hollande began his term trying to be a "normal" President who was pally with the people. When this failed, he used the totems of office - lots of tricolores and the pomp of the Elysee Palace - to try to reinvent himself as a stereotypical patrician President, a daddy to the people.

Now, though, he looks confident, calmly controlling security and foreign policy under the sweeping powers given to the French President under the constitution.

The crisis has also strengthened Hollande's tandem with his Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, a highly popular, tough-minded figure from the Socialists' moderate wing.

"They have carried out their duties with the purpose and dignity that were absolutely necessary," said senior opposition conservative MP Xavier Bertrand.

After previous confusion and tension, which gave rise to speculation that Valls wanted to succeed Hollande, the pair - for now - seem to have found the groove over who does what and why.

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Striking a martial tone, the Spanish-born premier led lawmakers in a rendition of the Marseillaise, the first time the national anthem had been sung in the legislature since the outbreak of World War I in 1914.

The biggest factor determining Hollande's future will be the economy. France has just over 10 per cent unemployment, almost negligible growth and sky-high debts, and Hollande's faltering attempts have done little but trigger whingeing.

Transferring national unity over a security emergency into acceptance for belt-tightening and sacrifice will require great skill - or a further shift in the political winds.

"The Charlie crisis will not overshadow the gloomy economic forecasts for very long," predicts Camus.

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