Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister. Photo / Getty Images
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer saw his Labour party succumb to a populist insurgency in a Manchester byelection.
That the Prime Minister, whose mantra is “country first, not party”, felt it was worth being up in the small hours for the Gorton and Denton result says something about what was at stake.
Downing Street publicly portrayed this contest as a shoot-out between Labour and Reform. In the end, both were left for dead by a new force in British politics.
The Green Party’s comfortable victory, with a vote share four times higher than any of its past byelections, confirms a poll surge under leader Zack Polanski is real.
It leaves a United Kingdom Prime Minister already beset by internal critics facing an altered reality – that the electoral threat to Labour comes not only from the radical right but also the fired-up left.
The evidence has been there for months, according to Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s polling guru, who spoke to the Telegraph after a night of broadcasting.
His analysis shows that one in eight Labour voters at the 2024 general election have gone to Reform, but one in four are now backing the Greens or the Liberal Democrats – so there is more bleeding on the left than right.
“Labour was actually elected by a largely socially liberal electorate and a relatively left-wing one, so you want to be careful about the extent to which you swim against that tide,” he said.
The question hanging over all this – the one that really matters – is whether Starmer’s recent talk of resets and a new working culture translates into a different policy platform.
In the hours after Labour’s third-place finish at Gorton and Denton public demands to move Left grew louder.
Four general secretaries of Labour-affiliated trade unions have demanded a more progressive plan. Time for not “new Labour” but “real Labour”, said Sharon Graham, the leader of Unite.
Maryam Eslamdoust, the general secretary of the TSSA, went further, spelling out requests, a wealth tax and the nationalisation of water companies high among them.
Socialist MPs – ones readily dismissed by Starmer allies as the usual suspects – made similar pleas, seeking a Corbynite agenda without the man himself.
In recent weeks, pressure has been applied by potential future Labour leadership candidates on what has been dubbed the “soft Left”.
Angela Rayner called on Sir Keir to be “braver”. Mainstream, a group closely associated with Andy Burnham, said Labour’s place as “the natural home for progressive voters” was under threat.
In February, Ed Miliband urged the Prime Minister to take on the “class divide” with more gusto.
But will Starmer really step left? Does he even know yet?
The remains of the political structure created with Morgan McSweeney over the last half a decade complicate the picture.
Ever since clinching the Labour leadership in 2020 by portraying himself as a continuity Corbyn with a plan to win back power, Starmer has been straining for the centre ground.
As Downing Street chief of staff, McSweeney, who held the Corbynites in contempt, drove the strategy of treating Reform voters’ concerns seriously and hardening the stance on immigration.
He may be gone, but there is no guarantee yet that the Prime Minister – still without a new chief of staff – will immediately swing back to the left, even if there are electoral and internal party management reasons to do so.
Will the Government go further on workers’ rights? Steve Reed, McSweeney’s old council boss and a firm centrist, is still in charge of that brief.
Is nationalising water firms really a goer when Emma Reynolds, who left the House of Commons under Corbyn and only returned when he was deposed, is Environment Secretary?
Shabana Mahmood, rewriting refugee rules and urging the “unthinkable” to be thought on small boats, shows no signs of slowing on her reform agenda in the Home Office.
A continuity message will be delivered by Rachel Reeves at the despatch box on Wednesday in a Spring Statement speech themed around the need to “stick to the plan”.
No 10 and No 11 are united in briefing that there will be no major policy announcements – though a few days still remain for a sudden change of heart.
So little does the Chancellor of the Exchequer want to say, after the tumult of the Autumn Budget, that the Treasury will not even publish a policy document alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast.
It certainly will not include a new wealth tax or water nationalisation.
“She’s had two Budgets, two spending reviews, a Spring Statement,” says one Treasury insider. “She has had ample opportunity to do those things. You can judge her by her record.”
Instead, she will point to reductions in inflation, interest rates and energy costs to build a narrative around the “conditions for growth” being implemented – which is not, it should be noted, the same as actual economic growth, which remains anaemic.
Two separate speeches, one full of technicalities on growth to be delivered to economists and another on reductions to the cost of living, are being worked up for later in the northern spring.
Some crumbs for the left are being prepared. A “social cohesion package” is to be unveiled next month, though even some figures close to it are disparaging, but no announcement is due this week.
Perhaps the staff could change at the top table. Bringing Rayner back into Cabinet – something Starmer has repeatedly signalled that he will one day do – is one option.
Another is sacking Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, accused of disloyalty for his leadership manoeuvring. The Prime Minister side-stepped that question when asked last week. Starmer loyalists are split on its political wisdom.
The King’s Speech, expected in the week beginning May 11, offers a proper policy reset moment if the Prime Minister survives the fallout from the previous week’s local elections.
Outlining the Government’s legislative agenda for the next 18 months or so will provide the clearest indication of whether Starmer heeds calls from the backbench Socialist Campaign Group.
Just do not bet on him taking the step yet. As one No 10 insider put it: “Are we going to do a massive pivot to the left and junk the manifesto? No.”
Two loyal Cabinet ministers echoed the same point. One said: “We’ve done some pretty left-wing things, like VAT on private schools, minimum wage increase, renters’ rights. I think this is just people reaching for a quick fix. There isn’t one.”
The other said the Prime Minister was adopting a more pumped-up, authentic persona in public but played down any linked policy overhaul.
“Let Keir be Keir” is the message of his most ardent Cabinet supporters. This spring, with his back against the wall, perhaps the real Keir will finally stand up.
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