Afghanistan war 'may take years', Aussies warned

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CANBERRA - Australia has been warned it may be locked into Afghanistan for years by a worsening war and problems in building a new Afghan Army capable of replacing foreign troops.

The main mission of Australia's expanded commitment of about 1500 troops is to train local forces in the southern Oruzgun province.

Their difficulties have been increased by the decision to boost the Afghan military from 92,000 troops to 134,000 within two years - three years less than the original timeframe - and possibly to an army of 240,000.

As well as training local soldiers and rebuilding the province, Australian special forces and infantry are fighting Taleban insurgents in a war that has killed 11 diggers and injured 70.

At least one attack a day has been made throughout Oruzgun this year.

During polling for last week's election insurgents launched 16 attacks in the province, using rockets, mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and small arms.

On Tuesday, Australian joint operations chief Lieutenant General Mark Evans said Australian troops had killed Taleban commander Mullah Abdul Karim and other insurgents.

A report by Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Raspal Khosa warns that Australia could be hearing similar reports for years.

Khosa says Canberra will be locked in by its strengthened support for United States President Barak Obama's upgraded strategy for Afghanistan, its focus on the creation of an Afghan Army capable of maintaining peace and security, and the gap between ambition and reality.

The US has committed an extra 21,000 troops to the war and a review by its new commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, is expected to call for even more troops.

Increases by Australia and an additional 5000 sent by European countries in the build-up to the election will take the total number of coalition troops to about 100,000 by the end of the year.

Canberra sees its involvement as central to reducing the threat to Australia from Islamic terrorists, and to its key military alliance with Washington, despite what Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has conceded is the growing unpopularity of the war.

Khosa says Australia's withdrawal depends on success in providing Afghan authorities with sufficient military, police and civil government skills to enable them to take over from coalition forces within a reasonable timeframe.

"This creates the basis of an exit strategy for Australian forces," his report says.

But the Taleban has extended its reach across much of southern Afghanistan, fighting a guerrilla war in the country's rural Pushtan heartland and attacks in towns and cities that have eroded confidence in the Government and its coalition backers.

For the Australians, Oruzgun province is becoming a tougher nut in a war that has cost Canberra A$3.6 billion ($4.4 billion), with a further A$1.4 billion budgeted for 2009-10. Operations in the province are led by Dutch troops, with no clear successor when the Netherlands pulls out next August.

There are concerns that the tempo of violence may increase as pressure from additional US and Pakistani forces elsewhere pushes more insurgents into Oruzgan, the birthplace of Taleban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and an insurgent training ground.

This will add to the "slow and painstaking" training of local troops already hindered by ethnic rivalries, retention problems, illiteracy and obsolete equipment inherited from the former Soviet Union.

Combat units have absentee rates of 9 per cent, further compounding the problems of the planned accelerated expansion of the Afghan Army, including the likely quality of its troops and equipment.

"The [Afghan Army] is a long way from taking responsibility for Afghanistan's security, which will remain dependent on the coalition for the foreseeable future," Khosa says in his report.

"Australia might need to maintain its forces in Afghanistan for many years to come."

www.aspi.org.au