The war in Ukraine has already had a major impact on Georgia's politics and the country's future will likely be shaped by the conflict's outcome. Photo / Sergey Bobok, AFP
Just over a year after the ruling party in Georgia, the small former Soviet republic nestled in the Caucasus, won parliamentary elections, the country finds itself further than ever from its long-sought goal of European Union membership - and much closer to Russia.
Though in power since 2012, the ruling Georgian Dream party has recently turned sharply towards Russia - the very country that once invaded Georgia - using the war in Ukraine to justify a tightening grip on politics and society that mirrors the image of its large neighbour.
Under the Georgian Dream party, founded and informally controlled by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch who built his fortune in Russia, Georgia has rapidly drifted away from its pro-European course.
The Government has cracked down on opposition figures, media and civil society, prompting accusations of political repression and fears that the country has firmly drifted back into Moscow’s orbit.
It also passed laws strikingly similar to those implemented in Russia to push out dissident voices by labelling them “foreign agents” as well as a populist anti-LGBTQ+ law meant to appeal to a conservative base.
Across Eastern Europe there is an ongoing tussle between Russia and the EU over the future of the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence, which has only grown sharper with the war in Ukraine.
Last week, the EU released what the bloc’s ambassador to Georgia described as a “devastating” report, concluding that the country has regressed in its bid to join the 27-member community.
In its assessment, the European Commission said the EU could welcome new members as early as 2030 and praised several of the candidates, including Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova, for their progress.
The report, however, accused Georgia of “serious democratic backsliding”, declaring that the country is now a candidate “in name only”.
“The Georgian authorities have imposed repressive measures against civil society, media representatives and opposition leaders that severely undermine democratic processes and effectively abolish civic participation and the system of checks and balances,” the report stated.
Georgian Dream hit back two days later by bringing new charges against eight prominent opposition figures, including former president Mikheil Saakashvili, who is behind bars. It has already moved to ban the main opposition parties.
“Georgian Dream answers the EU’s report: ‘We don’t care,’” Georgia’s largely ceremonial President, Salome Zourabichvili, who opposes the Government, wrote on social media.
“Russian handbook at work: new accusations levelled by the General Prosecutor against almost all opposition leaders - sabotage, plotting to topple the government, serving foreign interests - carrying sentences of up to 11 years.”
Zourabichvili has emerged as a rare unifying voice within the fractious opposition, calling for Georgia to return to its European path.
Yet her influence is limited: Since constitutional changes in 2018 transformed Georgia into a parliamentary republic, real executive power has been concentrated in the hands of the prime minister and the ruling party.
The move to press new charges against Georgian opposition figures is largely symbolic but carries a wider ideological weight, said Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.
“They are targeting the idea of Georgia being independent and moving towards European integration,” she said.
Anyone who suggests the contrary or that the country is not part of the Russian sphere of influence “is being simply targeted”.
The Kremlin has repeatedly said it does not interfere in the Georgian electoral processes or politics.
Georgia’s turnaround over Europe is especially striking because Georgian Dream made significant progress towards EU integration in its earlier years in power.
Georgia’s path to join the EU began decades ago, propelled by the 2003 Rose Revolution - part of the wave of “colour” revolutions among former Soviet states for greater democracy.
Saakashvili, then president, made joining the EU and the Nato military alliance core goals.
In 2012, Georgian Dream beat Saakashvili’s party but continued with aspirations to join the EU, hitting milestones like trade agreements and visa-free travel to the Schengen area before formally applying to join a few days after the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In the wake of the invasion, however, the tone of the party changed. It began adopting an increasingly pro-Russian stance, even though officially its leaders stated they wanted to be friendly with both the East and West.
The real turning point came with the election campaign for the October 2024 parliamentary elections as the ruling party seized on the public’s fear of the war - then already two years old.
Georgian Dream framed the vote as a stark choice between peace or aligning with the West and facing Russia’s wrath.
Such rhetoric resonated in the areas of Georgia close to the Russian border with residents still scarred by the short 2008 war that left around 20% of the country under Moscow’s de facto occupation.
The divided opposition, which lost an election the EU said was rife with voter intimidation, has dismissed Georgian Dream’s self-stated mission to keep the country from being dragged into war as propaganda and a way to entrench its power and pave the way to a single-party system.
Authorities harshly cracked down on protests that went on for several months after the parliamentary vote and then again last month during a round of municipal elections.
Eight pro-Western parties, part of the Coalition for Change, boycotted the municipal vote, calling it a “farce” and a “Russian special operation” to legitimise Georgian Dream.
The fear that Georgia is on the way to becoming a one-party state with a rubber-stamp legislature further deepened two weeks ago when Georgian Dream demanded a ban on three main opposition parties, all of which are staunchly pro-European, and said it would petition the Constitutional Court to outlaw them.
Shalva Papuashvili, a senior Georgian Dream member, accused the opposition parties - the Coalition for Change, United National Movement and Strong Georgia-Lelo bloc - of “continuously denying both the domestic-political and foreign-political legitimacy of the current government and the ruling political party of Georgia” and posing “a real threat to the constitutional order”.
Papuashvili added that smaller allied parties could also face similar action if they “gain significant influence over the political process”.
“This is called state capture, as in Georgia we basically have a one-party Parliament and this is not a democracy,” said Akhvlediani, the analyst, adding that there is little doubt the Constitutional Court will comply with Georgian Dream’s wishes, as judicial independence has also been eroded.
According to Akhvlediani, Georgia’s future will in many ways depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, at a time when United States efforts to broker peace have stalled and Russia shows no sign of compromise, pressing on with a grinding war.
“What happens in Georgia very much depends on what happens in the wider region, because the current government operates by the Kremlin playbook and if Kremlin gets weakened, they may also lose the leverage,” she said.
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