A step from UN action

Mohamed ElBaradei

VIENNA - The United Nations atomic watchdog's board is weighing Iran's refusal to curb nuclear activity, opening the way to possible UN Security Council action over concerns Tehran covertly seeks atom bombs.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei submitted a report to the 35-nation meeting saying Iran has largely ignored a resolution demanding that it take steps to defuse a crisis of confidence in its nuclear programme.

ElBaradei's report will be forwarded to the Security Council as mandated by a board vote a month ago after three years of IAEA probes often parried by Tehran.

No new resolution was expected because the February motion, which at the insistence of Russia, China and developing states gave Iran a month to comply, was deemed enough for the council to take up the issue.

John Bolton, US Ambassador to the UN, warned Iran faced "tangible and painful consequences" if it pushed ahead with uranium enrichment and Washington would use "all tools at our disposal" to neutralise the project.

"The longer we wait to confront the threat Iran poses, the harder and more intractable it will become to solve."

When the council might act remains unclear. The timing could hinge on the course of talks between Russia and Iran on Moscow's offer to enrich uranium on Tehran's behalf.

Iranian Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Javad Vaeedi repeatedly said that Iran would not change its mind about its nuclear research activities.

Nuclear scientists estimate Iran remains some years away from mastering technology to enrich enough uranium for bombs.

ElBaradei's report said Iran had disregarded the February resolution urging it to shelve all enrichment-related work and stop stonewalling IAEA inquiries to verify if the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme is solely peaceful or not.

Instead, Iran is testing a cascade of 20 centrifuges, machines that convert uranium UF6 gas into fuel for atomic power reactors or, if purified to high levels, weapons.

He said Iran aims to begin installing 3000 centrifuges later this year for "research and development" that has nothing to do with industrial-scale fuel production, but which the West says could have no other motivation.

Iran has struggled to operate cascades - or networks - of the delicate centrifuges without breakdowns. But about 1500 centrifuges running optimally could yield enough uranium for one atomic bomb per year.

Trying to slow council intervention, Iran had offered to hold off industrial-scale fuel production for one to two years and restore short-notice inspections while continuing with enrichment R&D, an offer which was rebuffed.


Diplomacy or other means?

The lead-up: On February 4, the IAEA decision-making board voted 27-3 to report Iran to the Security Council as long as the council took no action before the board debated the Iran report.

The first step: Expected to be a statement reinforcing IAEA calls on Iran to stop stonewalling probes, re-suspend all enrichment work and negotiate in good faith on a diplomatic compromise.

If that fails: The council could consider steps to give the IAEA more intrusive, short-notice inspection authority. If diplomatic options fail, possible sanctions could include travel curbs on officials and trade embargoes.

Easy does it: Serious punitive action looks a distant prospect given opposition by veto-wielding Russia and China. As long as the IAEA has no hard evidence of illicit bomb production in Iran, most nations would see no reason to hit the world's No. 4 oil exporter with sanctions with crude prices already high.

The last resort: The United States and Israel have hinted at military action as a last resort to knock out Iran's nuclear capability

- REUTERS