Now, Japanese officials are scrambling to shut down these rumours and stop the panic.
“It is scientifically impossible to predict earthquakes by specifying the date, location, or magnitude,” said Ryoichi Nomura, the head of Japan Meteorological Agency, in a news conference last month. “Therefore, any claims suggesting such specific predictions are completely false and should be regarded as misinformation.”
The Japanese Government’s recent warnings of a potential “megaquake” that could trigger a powerful tsunami in the next 30 years haven’t helped quell the rumours.
In August 2024, after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Miyazaki prefecture in southern Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first-ever warning for a “megaquake” near the Nankai Trough, a submarine trough with a significant amount of geological tension.
That warning was lifted later that month. But last January, a government task force assessed that there was about an 80% probability of an 8- or 9-magnitude earthquake occurring in the same area within the next 30 years.
Despite that decades-long timeline, the warning has been widely interpreted across Chinese and South Korean social media accounts as a confirmation of Tatsuki’s prediction.
In Hong Kong alone, two airlines cut down on flights to the southern Japanese prefectures in recent weeks. Hong Kong Airlines pulled back all flights between Kagoshima and Kumamoto in the high summer seasons of July and August, citing rapidly declining passenger interest. Tokushima prefecture, also in southern Japan, announced that Greater Bay Airlines had reduced its flights between mid-May and October.
“We are surprised that such rumours have led to cancellations,” the Tokushima Tourism Promotion Division said.
Flight occupancy for routes to Tottori prefecture in western Japan dropped from about 85% during the Easter holiday in April to 43.3% in May, according to figures from the prefecture’s governor, Shinji Hirai, and the tourism office.
“The impact is quite significant, and regrettably, the situation remains challenging. We believe it’s important to face the facts calmly and objectively,” Hirai said in a news conference late May.
Yuen Chun Ning, the chief executive of Hong Kong travel agency WWPKG, which specialises in routes from Hong Kong and mainland China to Japan, called the paranoia among travellers about a potential July disaster “deep-rooted”. Some travel agents in Hong Kong say travellers there may be particularly spooked because they come from an area that rarely experiences earthquakes.
WWPKG noted that it is offering promotional packages that include a full refund in the event of a 5-magnitude or stronger earthquake in Japan and declaration of an official disaster at the destination. But even that offer isn’t making much of a difference, the company said.
Tourists are “not taking the risk” and are avoiding Japan in the high season of June, July and August, opting for destinations such as Australia, Dubai and Europe instead, Yuen told local outlet Oriental Daily News earlier this month.
Taiwanese travel influencer Brian In also noted a rare price drop in July plane tickets from Taiwan to Tokyo, Osaka and Okinawa, traditionally the top three Japanese destinations for Taiwanese visitors.
“This is very uncommon,” he wrote on Facebook, attributing the price drop to “the power of the prophecy being too strong, or because low-cost airlines have wrecked the market”.
Despite these recent dips, Japan’s tourism industry is seeing a massive post-Covid boom. For 2025, tourist arrivals are on pace to eclipse the record 36.8 million in 2024, according to official tourism data released in April.
The number of foreign visitors to Japan last month reached 3.7 million, a 21.5% increase from May 2024, new travel figures released Wednesday show. Hong Kong was the only location that saw a year-over-year decline in visitors to Japan compared to last May, the figures show.
The influx of tourists, taking advantage of the weak Japanese yen, has been a boost to the Japanese economy. But they have also tested the patience of locals, many of whom have complained about overcrowding and litter.
Japan is no stranger to earthquakes. It is among the most seismically active countries in the world and the birthplace of seismology, or the study of earthquakes. Every year, Japan has about 1500 earthquakes that can be felt by people.
Nomura, of the Japan Meteorological Agency, emphasised that despite Japan being prone to earthquakes, the most important thing is to be always prepared and to seek trusted information, urging the public “not to be swayed by disaster information that specifies a date. We strongly advise against acting irrationally.”
Tanaka reported from Tokyo. Lyric Li in Seoul contributed to this report.
