It is still unclear whether the heightened tensions reflect a genuine Israeli plan to carry out an attack or are an attempt at sabre-rattling to influence the nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
Why might Israel attack now?
Israel has long been determined to prevent Iran, its fiercest enemy, from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Since the rise of the Islamic Republic at the end of the 1970s, Iran’s rulers have repeatedly pledged to destroy Israel.
Iran’s nuclear programme has advanced considerably over the past decade, analysts say.
It is now on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel 10 nuclear weapons, although producing a usable bomb would likely take many more months.
Today NZT, the International Atomic Energy Agency declared that Iran was not complying with its nuclear non-proliferation obligations — the first such censure in two decades.
Iran condemned the vote, saying it “completely called into question the credibility and prestige” of the nuclear watchdog.
But Iran has been weakened since Hamas launched the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas and Hezbollah, which are backed by Iran, have been decimated in their wars with Israel.
Netanyahu has privately argued that Iran’s vulnerability will not last long, meaning that Israel has a limited window in which to launch an attack.
“One way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” he said in an speech in April.
Iran had wielded the threat of a formidable response by Hezbollah in Lebanon as a deterrent against Israeli attack. But after Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, Israel routed the group, methodically eliminating its leadership and killing thousands of its fighters.
Israeli strikes against Iran’s air defences last year weakened their capabilities, allowing Israeli fighter jets to more safely launch a new mass attack, according to officials and analysts. If Israel waits too long, Iran might restore them, analysts said.
What’s the status of US-Iran nuclear talks?
American and Iranian negotiators have been planning to meet on Monday NZT in Oman for a sixth round of talks about Iran’s nuclear programme.
The two sides have been at an impasse over whether Iran should be able to continue enriching uranium within its borders.
During his first term, Trump pulled the US out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was signed by President Barack Obama, deriding the agreement as “one-sided”.
This time around, he seems eager to avoid being sucked into a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, Trump said that Iran had adopted an “unacceptable” negotiating position, and has downplayed the prospects of a deal.
“I’m getting more and more less confident about it,” he told the New York Post in a podcast yesterday. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame.”
Still, Trump has warned Netanyahu multiple times against attacking Iran’s nuclear sites while talks are under way.
“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said in May.
Why are Israel and Iran at odds?
Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades.
Iran has supported a web of militia groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, to pressure Israel on multiple fronts.
Israel has bombarded sites in Syria and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists.
In the last year, their shadow war has become overt.
In April 2024, Israel assassinated Iranian security chiefs in an airstrike in Syria, prompting Iran to fire hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Israel later struck back at Iran.
Several months later, Iran fired more than 150 missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ leader, in Tehran.
Israel retaliated by again bombarding Iran’s aerial defences.
Israel’s attacks have effectively taken out four S-300 air-defence systems that Iran had purchased from Russia, Iranian and Israeli officials said, including one near Natanz, a city in central Iran that is critical to the country’s nuclear programme.
Could Israel go it alone?
Israel possesses sophisticated military capabilities.
But military analysts say destroying Iran’s nuclear programme would be tricky, even for one of the strongest powers in the Middle East, and would probably require US military support.
Previous Israeli plans to attack Iran have relied heavily on US backing.
Israel also hopes US forces will defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, which is expected to be prompt and forceful.
Israel’s planes would have to fly long distances to strike Iran.
In similar attacks, such as those against the Houthis in Yemen, Israeli forces have flown more than 1600km, using dozens of fighter jets that had to be refuelled mid-flight.
Israel has conducted such operations before, but a mass attack would test the scope of its resources.
Experts say destroying all of Iran’s nuclear sites — some of which are in heavily reinforced underground facilities beneath mountains — would require extremely powerful munitions.
The US has thus far refused Israeli requests to provide the biggest bomb in its arsenal, a 13,610kg “bunker-buster.”
And if an Israeli strike fails to eradicate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it could drive the weapons programme deeper underground, leading Iran to bar the few nuclear inspectors who still have regular, if limited, access to its major facilities.
An Israeli strike could also prompt Iran’s leaders to finally decide to race for a bomb — the line that its mullahs and generals have, for nearly a quarter of a century, stopped short of crossing.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Aaron Boxerman
©2025 THE NEW YORK TIMES
