New Zealanders can expect price rises for flights to some key travel destinations as a result of the conflict in Iran, an aviation expert warns.
Aviation industry commentator Irene King predicts there will be price premiums for direct flights to Europe.
“There’s clearly going to be some capacity problems and some price hikes, particularly for those who need to reorient their travel away from Middle Eastern hubs,” King told the Herald.
“If you want to travel, you are going to have to pay more because at the moment, most of the carriers that still remain fully operational have very high load factors.”
There has been disagreement among travel experts regarding what long-term disruption is likely to be caused by the crisis in the Middle East, with suggestions flights from Australia could be affected for months.
However, King believes the disruption won’t be as bad for Kiwis. Unlike Australian flights to Europe, New Zealanders aren’t limited to a stopover in Dubai; they can travel through the US and Asian hubs, including Singapore and Hong Kong.
“Those [airports] are still functioning ... all of those routes are very far away from the conflict and war zone,” she says.
“So yes, reorientate your flying, but it’s not a big reorientation for most Kiwis.”
Although prices may rise in the short term, King also believes there will likely be “attractive” prices for routes over the Middle East up into Europe when the conflict is over.
“If you can defer your travel and think about those trips and wait for some price drops ... there will be some very keen pricing from the Middle Eastern carriers because they are taking an enormous financial hit at the moment,” she says.
King also expected security to be “tweaked up a notch”.
“I think you’re going to have that increased awareness of who is travelling and why they are travelling,” she says.
“New Zealand is relatively relaxed in the sense that we let visitors into our international airports, whereas around the globe, quite often there is a very strict quarantine and no visitors into airports, just passengers travelling.
“We may well see that at a number of locations, particularly in the US, where clearly there’ll be a period of heightened alert for anyone who is involved.”
King says it’s unclear how long flight disruptions would last.
“The reality is no one really knows,” she says, adding that what gives her hope is seeing a resumption of some services out of Dubai and the use of highly advanced risk-assessment technology.
While Kiwis will still be able plan holidays in Europe, King cautions risk levels “will be elevated because of what’s going on in the Middle East”.
“The risk for New Zealanders is very different,” she says. “If you’re looking for safe-haven-type holidays ... Asia, Australia and South America are very good at the moment. There are lots of viable options for people.”
Australian Industry Travel Association chief executive David Long also pushed back on comments that Australians should avoid booking flights to Europe, saying travellers should not cancel their trips. .
“There are plenty of safe ways to get to Europe and the aviation sector has and will continue to adapt,” he said in a written statement today.
“Asia is open and operating. We have flights coming out of the Middle East. There will be some delays and a bit more disruption than what we’re used to but no one in the travel industry is going to put you in a place where it’s unsafe.”
The New Zealand Government announced today it will pre-deploy NZ consular staff and two NZ Defence Force Planes to the region, to be ready to assist any civilian evacuation options when conditions allow.
New Zealanders in the Middle East are urged to register on the SafeTravel website (run by the consular division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade).
Varsha is a journalist in the lifestyle team at the Herald. She is based in Auckland.