KEY POINTS:
Rural areas can expect to see a steady inflow of workers from the cities in the next two years, economists say.
Westpac head of research Dominick Stephens said a shift in prosperity, fuelled by the dairy boom, would entice workers from cities. "There's going to be a real
divide between rural and urban fortunes over the next two to three years. We're used to urban areas out-performing rural areas, and that's going to reverse for quite some time. It could even feel like a recession in Auckland."
Stephens said while some dairying money would trickle through to urban areas, a weak housing market in Auckland in particular would take its toll on the job market. "Rural areas will be demanding a lot of labour."
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said areas such as Waikato and Southland would become more attractive as they enjoyed two or more years of prosperity. But with unemployment at its lowest point in more than 20 years, the dairy boom would not affect migration patterns the way it might have in the 1990s.
"People are not sitting around saying, 'I haven't been able to find work for a year'," said Tuffley.
"A lot will depend on people's relative job prospects."
Whether rural populations gained in the long term would depend on whether dairy continued to do very well, said Tuffley.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said there would be "a little bit" of migration to rural areas, but it would not be a strong trend.
"It's a great economic theory, [that] people will up and move to where the jobs are, where the pay increases are, but realistically we know the labour market just doesn't operate that way."
"The reality is the labour market is not that efficient.
"If you look at New Zealand at the moment, you have some regions that still have reasonably high unemployment rates and some regions have got low rates, and even at the moment people are not shifting."
Bagrie said for most people, wages and a secure income were only a part of the decision whether to move or stay.
Statistics New Zealand figures show rural areas gained from both small centres and large cities within New Zealand between 2001 and 2006.
The net movement of people between urban and rural areas has fluctuated over the past decade, but populations of major urban centres have grown much faster because they attract most of New Zealand's overseas migrants.
The last Census found 84 per cent of those who moved to New Zealand between 2001 and 2006 lived in cities.
HOW WE MOVE
* At the last Census in 2006, 86 per cent of New Zealand's population lived in urban areas. About three-quarters lived in the North Island.
* The fastest growing region was Auckland. Statistics New Zealand predicts 62 per cent of New Zealand's population growth between 2006 and 2031 will be in the Auckland region.
* Auckland's population gains are mostly from natural increases and overseas migrants, rather than internal migration.
* Migration within New Zealand has fluctuated over the past three census periods, with rural areas (areas that have fewer than 300 people living within a reasonably compact area) tending to gain migrants from elsewhere in New Zealand.
* Rural centres and small towns of between 300 and 10,000 people have tended to lose population to other areas.
* Overall, New Zealanders are becoming more mobile.
* At the last Census, more than half the usually resident population had moved in the past five years.
