In particular, this will be characterised by intense and frequent west and south-westerly winds, which New Zealand is set to encounter over the spring and summer months.
Regions on heat watch
Of note, seasonal predictions for those in the Gisborne and Hawkes’ Bay regions signal some very high temperatures through this summer, and to a lesser extent, Nelson/Marlborough, Canterbury and Eastern Otago are forecast to also see an extended run of heat over the next six months.
However, Kiwis in areas such as Southland, Otago, and Westland may be in for a bit of a “bummer summer,” with some cooler temperatures and higher-than-average rainfall over late spring through summer, due to the lower pressure systems that will sit at the bottom of the country.
Who can expect some rain?
In terms of rainfall, seasonal predictions indicate the Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay regions are looking very dry, overall.
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Coromandel can expect intermittent and modest summer rainfall.
For farmers and growers, however, be warned that even with modest or “near-normal” rainfall, soils are expected to be dry as the expected strong winds are likely to strip moisture out of the soil.
For King Country right down through Taranaki and Western and Central North Island, expect frequent westerly winds along with some decent summer rain.
Although, be prepared for soil conditions to bounce around as predictions are showing that there will be periods of dry spells with wind, intermingled with wetter periods.
Westland, Fiordland, Southland and much of Otago, are forecast to receive well above normal summer rainfall, with the potential for periods of extreme rain from November onwards.
Drought risk
MetService forecasters echoed concerns of summer drought in the Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay regions, as well as in Marlborough and Canterbury, as the mix of wind and heat will likely result in dry soils.
How will this all play out on-farm?
Ballance’s national corporate account manager, Aaron Stafford, said it was important for farmers and growers to understand what “these multitude of weather conditions” would mean on-farm.
“The seasons are going to be more pronounced going forward and I really think the key takeaway for those on-farm is that this year’s summer is going to be very different to the last couple of seasons, wherever you are.”
Stafford said that for those located in areas forecast to be drier this summer-autumn, it was vital to harness the soil moisture and pasture growth consistency throughout spring, as soils in these areas were likely to dry out post-Christmas.
“You’ve really got to make the most with what you can in the early season in terms of pasture growth, good soil moisture and temperatures to harness feed availability for the following months.”
The role of nitrogen for on-farm preparation
When it came to practical advice, Stafford highlighted the importance of nitrogen.
“We’d recommend focusing on using nitrogen as a pasture growth promoter to maximise spring growth, leveraging conditions that are favourable for strong N responses.”
Pastures still looked “very N-limited” coming out of a really wet autumn and winter in many areas, he said.
“Don’t leave your available N inputs too late in the season, as nitrogen responses will be poor when pastures are moisture and temperature stressed, or when there is lots of soil mineral N already available in the soil over summer/autumn.”
Stafford recommended farmers and growers shift more of their nitrogen focus to earlier in the season.
The consequences of wet autumn and winter months in some parts of the country - thanks to La Niña - led to a lot of leaching of mobile nutrients, meaning low soil availability of nitrogen and sulphur this spring, he said.
“We’ve been seeing a number of nitrogen-deficient pastures out there over the past few months.
“Overlay this with good soil moisture, good temperature, and the pasture production potential is there, but nitrogen will become the key limitation in that spring period.
“So, make sure you recognise to go early and drive pasture production pre-Christmas.”
How can growers take care of crops?
Warwick Catto, Ballance science strategy manager, also urged farmers to start thinking about how they could best prioritise their crops, with advice to plant as early as possible, particularly for the regions that were looking to get really dry over the summer months.
“In those regions, you’ve now got a short window of moisture left to get the crops in, particularly summer crops that need their roots down deep in the soil to get established and access moisture.”
Ways in which to support soil nutrients were also discussed at the webinar.
Catto suggested that effluent paddocks could be a useful tool to consider when supplying nutrients to crop areas.
However, he noted that phosphate was a key nutrient for crops experiencing those dry conditions.
“So, placement of this is key as surface application simply won’t supply the nutrient to where the crop needs it – phosphate should be incorporated into the soil for best effect.”
For those in the deep South and West Coast, where there will be levels of summer moisture, Catto suggested that the yield potential for brassicas would be very high.
“Make the most of the opportunity to apply nitrogen to the established crop, with a split application strategy so that rates of N can be better matched to crop yield potential, depending on how the weather plays out”.
El Niño webinar summary
To wrap the webinar up, Stafford said that with increasing seasonal weather and pasture production variability, it was a good time for farmers and growers to remember the “4 R’s of good fertiliser management”.
“Applying at the right time, in the right place, with the right product, and at the right rate.”
