In its latest beef research report, Australian and New Zealand beef industry - looking beyond the price peak, agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank says that, while New Zealand farmgate prices are expected to remain around current levels in the short-term, they will then come under pressure as global beef production, and indeed total animal protein production, increases.
This will likely see prices ease, albeit to trade in a higher-than-average range out to 2020.
In light of this outlook, the report says, Kiwi beef producers need to take a cautious, yet optimistic, approach - particularly those buying stock, or looking to rebuild or expand production.
"New Zealand farmgate prices have fallen from the peaks of late-2014, however they are still amongst the highest of all key producing countries in the world," says report author Rabobank animal protein analyst Matthew Costello, "and in our view, this high pricing cannot be sustained in the medium to long term."
Mr Costello says New Zealand farmers do not have to look back too far for evidence of how quickly unsustainable pricing can place pressure right along the supply chain.
"Those in the lamb industry will remember how quickly New Zealand farmgate prices fell when consumers pushed back from record-high prices at a time when the economic environment was weak post-GFC, with New Zealand lamb prices falling by around 40 per cent in the space of 16 months.
"While this example should act as a cautionary tale, we don't expect a price fall of this severity in the beef sector. Rabobank is anticipating farmgate beef prices to ease, albeit to settle in a higher average price range as we move towards 2020, compared to historic average levels."
New world order
A "new world order" is emerging in the global fresh fruit and vegetable trade, according to a recently-released research report. And this will challenge New Zealand's horticulture sector to position itself to compete and grow in the "export markets of tomorrow".
In the report, New World Order? - Up-and-Coming Players in the Fresh Produce Trade, global agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank says the face of the fresh fruit and vegetable trade is rapidly changing - with new growth markets emerging in Asia and the Middle East and up-and-coming exporting nations, such as Mexico and Peru, rising in prominence.
"Consumers worldwide are increasingly demanding a higher-value and more interesting range of fruits and vegetables. The result is that while the volume of fresh fruit and vegetable consumption around the world may be barely increasing, the value of global fruit and vegetable trade is rising."
GMO review
Environment Minister Nick Smith announced last week the Government will review the appropriateness of councils being involved in regulating genetically modified organisms (GMOs), prompted by advice over a liver cancer treatment trial involving a GMO in Auckland. The new Auckland Unitary Plan prohibits the release of any GMO and would not allow any such future medical treatments.
GM is going to be one of the hot topics at the Auckland conference.
Two "remarkable international" guest speakers will provide a global perspective to the NZ debate. Jack Bobo serves as the senior vice president and chief communications Officer for Intrexon, a synthetic biology company developing revolutionary solutions to the world's most pressing problems - in food, energy and health.
In June 2015, he was named by Scientific American one of the 100 most influential people in biotechnology today.
Sweta Chakraborty is the associate director of the Institute of Science for Global Policy (ISGP) in New York. Dr Chakraborty is also a programme associate on pharmaceutical regulation and product liability at Oxford University's Centre for Socio-Legal Studies (CSLS).
Her primary area of expertise is on science and technology policy options for global issues (e.g., infectious disease, food security, climate change). Her research expertise areas include risk perception, risk and crisis communications, corporate reputational management, risk regulation, and public trust.
The conference theme is "Beyond the Horizon". Visit www.nzbio.org.nz.
