Potentially bringing a variety of challenges, such a weather system will require on-farm planning by farmers to get through the months ahead.
You could call El Niño a temperature rollercoaster which has already led to Hawke’s Bay having a 29.6C day in September (the third-warmest temperature for September nationally on record) while at the same time down south there was snow.
Farmers need to focus on what they know best and that is growing and utilising as much pasture as possible because this has to be the cheapest form of feed possible.
Planning for adequate feed in what will be a dry season is what farmers do, but they need to be thinking about next season as well.
Getting cows or ewes back in calf or lamb will certainly determine financial outcomes for next season.
Looking for the most cost-effective ways to meet feed shortfalls requires careful planning and it certainly becomes a balancing act as the days grow longer and the heat more intense.
Buying in supplementary feed will be more of a necessity than an option, especially if silage pits are looking depleted and the grass starts to vanish before your eyes.
Already I see contractors hard at work, preparing soil for summer crops which will be vital for farmers to keep their stock in good health.
So long as paddocks are locked up well before the soil starts to get parched, there is hay and silage to be made.
It won’t take long before tractors and huge balers are being trundled up and down the rural roads.
Dams are another consideration: Do you need a new one to get you through this El Niño summer or maybe you can employ a local contractor to clean existing dams out?
Come summer, you will notice how more determined stock seem to get when feed starts to get short, a gap in the fence is always found, so keeping fences tight and battens in place will help prevent having strangers in the flower garden - the last thing you want to do is get offside with the gardener in your family.
A real El Niño comes only every couple of decades, the last true one being 2015/16.
This October will see higher temperatures, less rainfall and wind. Mind you other areas could endure hail or snow - El Niño is a real teaser when it comes to playing with the weather.
To help with managing El Niño, NIWA and the Ministry for Primary Industries have produced a tool to assist with future planning to ensure you are ready to take it head-on.
Find out more at shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast
- Kem Ormond is a commercial writer for NZME.
