Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the 1.5% rise was slightly less than Westpac and the market had expected, as the March quarter increase had been marked down from 5.1% to 3.9%, due to a revision to forestry exports.
"As a result, the terms of trade fell slightly short of the record high that we were anticipating," Mr Gordon said.
Dairy export volumes had rebounded by 19%, reflecting both an improvement in milk production during the first half of the year and the delayed timing of some export shipments. Import volumes rose 2.3%, largely because of a "lumpy quarter" for petroleum imports, which were up 18.5%, Mr Gordon said.
ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said the market had expected 3% and the ASB 2%, compared with the actual 1.5%, because of the forestry revision.
"Nonetheless, we expect the terms of trade to set a record later this year," he said.
Mr Penny noted the export price strength was "broad-based", meat prices jumping 9.2% and food and beverage prices up 4.7%.
Beyond the main export categories, only non-food manufacturers and wool failed to post gains, he said.
SNZ's Mr Attewell said consumers were able to gauge the impact of high international prices from the trade data.
The average price paid by households for a 500g block of salted butter peaked at $5.05 in June, while the average price for a 1kg block of mild cheddar was $9.25, up 20% compared with June last year.
Terms of trade
Terms of trade figures for the quarter to June.
Export: rises 9% to $12.9billion
Import: rises 2.9% to $13.5billion
- Source: SNZ
