Climate Change Minister Tim Groser spoke to environment reporter Eloise Gibson about the obstacles ahead.
With the Kyoto Protocol due to expire in 2012, what are the biggest obstacles to developing a new treaty?
The number one issue is participation. Countries that have obligations under Kyoto account for less than 30 per cent of global emissions and that number is falling. It does
not include developing countries or the United States.
It seems likely the United States will join the next agreement when negotiations begin in Copenhagen in December. Does that leave developing countries as the biggest challenge?
I don't think you can separate the issue of the United States joining from developing countries joining. Everyone expects developing countries will do less than developed countries, but they must do something or we are wasting our time.
What will New Zealand ask for at Copenhagen?
New Zealand is almost uniquely badly placed among Kyoto signatories because there is no technical fix for enteric methane (the greenhouse gas produced by farm animals). Whatever New Zealand finally agrees to has to take into account the limits on how much we can reduce emissions from agriculture (49 per cent of current emissions). Many developing countries face the same obstacle - Uruguay, for example, has an even higher share of agriculture emissions than we do.
Couldn't other countries argue it is just as difficult for them to reduce emissions as it is for us to cut agriculture emissions, for example countries that rely on electricity from coal?
Agriculture is in a special category. There are solutions to the generation of electricity from coal but there are no ways to reduce enteric methane. There are a series of interesting ideas in a lab, but nothing that is commercially available.
Isn't that how all new technology starts - an idea in a lab?
Yes, and the Government is making a huge effort to accelerate the development of new technologies and make New Zealand a virtual world centre for international research on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
Could we help developing countries who are facing the same problem?
Yes. I've raised the issue (of a global research network) at meetings in Delhi, Berlin, Brussels, Thailand and there has been a high level of interest.
Should agriculture emissions be completely exempt?
No. New Zealanders want to do their fair share. We argue that all countries must look at what practical potential they have to reduce greenhouse gases.
Any other big issues for New Zealand?
Forestry. The rules negotiated at Kyoto assume all carbon from trees is released as soon as you cut the trees down and that is not necessarily true. Kyoto also penalises people who want to cut down forests and plant them in a different place.
New Zealand wants to transfer more of its forestry to marginal hill country and under the current rules that will cost a lot of money.
Will the Government announce new targets for reducing emissions before Copenhagen?
That is a decision for the Cabinet. Based on the latest figures, New Zealand's emissions are massively in excess of our Kyoto obligations. In that context, taking on even more ambitious targets is a tough ask. But we have not rejected it and we will watch and see what happens over the course of this year.
Was December's climate change conference in Poznan, Poland, useful?
I thought it was pretty disappointing. A road map had been laid out (in Bali in 2007) to achieve a new treaty within two years. Poznan, as a half-way point, fell well short of that. I've reached the conclusion the best that can be achieved in Copenhagen is some type of framework agreement.
Does that mean there could be a time gap between Kyoto and its replacement?
No. You cannot have a situation where Kyoto is simply followed by a vacuum. But there is not a lot of time left.