Forestry conversion: Beef + Lamb NZ survey shows land-use change impacting livestock numbers

B+LNZ is concerned about the amount of sheep and beef farmland being converted to forestry.

Land-use change continues to have an impact on livestock numbers, according to a study by Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ).

The B+LNZ Stock Number Survey, which provides an assessment of New Zealand’s sheep flock and beef cattle herd, shows the breeding ewe flock continues to decline with a 0.9 per cent reduction, following a 5.2 per cent reduction last year.

B+LNZ’s chief insight officer Julian Ashby said the breeding flock was the key indicator of the future flock size.

“It’s trending down and is expected to continue to decline, one of the contributing factors is land-use change.”

Ashby said the amount of sheep and beef farmland being converted to forestry, along with the cumulative impact of a range of other policies on farm viability, was concerning.

An updated analysis of land-use change from pastoral farming to large-scale forestry released by B+LNZ in July showed more than 200,000ha of sheep and beef farms had been sold into forestry in the last five years.

Ashby said this was now being reflected in livestock numbers.

“We have been saying for some time that there needs to be specific limits on the amount of forestry that can be used to offset fossil fuel emissions in the ETS.”

B+LNZ was not anti-forestry, Ashby said.

“We know many farmers are interested in integrating trees into their farms, but there must be some balance.”

On a positive note, the forecast for lambing is expected to slightly increase this spring.

B+LNZ economic service chief economist Andrew Burtt said this was good news for both farmers and exporters and followed favourable autumn conditions for ewes at mating.

Meanwhile, the number of total beef cattle at June 30, 2023, estimated at 3.81 million, is down 2.4 per cent.

The number of breeding cows and heifers increased 1.1 per cent, with the South Island, mostly, leading the increase, Burtt said.

“Breeding cow numbers lifted as farmers chose to reduce weaner and trading cattle numbers.”

Burtt said the number of beef cattle weaners decreased by 3.2 per cent overall, but Southland farms bucked the trend and replenished weaner numbers by over 20 per cent following two years of dry conditions.

Read the report here.