Doubling exports by 2034: How are we going to get there?

Vocational reform in the food and fibre sector could unlock booming export potential. Photo / Michael Craig

THREE KEY FACTS

• The food and fibre sector accounts for over 80% of exports, valued at $55 billion annually.
• Doubling exports by 2034 will require a skilled workforce.
• Muka Tangata is developing a strategy to address workforce shortages and improve vocational education.

The Government has set a goal of doubling exports by 2034 – the big question is, how are we going to get there?

The food and fibre sector plays a vital role, responsible for over 80% of New Zealand’s total exports, with a value of $55 billion annually.

Doubling exports within the next decade will require building a skilled, adaptable and productive workforce for the sector, with the right training and the right support.

And, without change and investment, our vocational education and training system is not going to deliver.

As the Workforce Development Council for the food and fibre sector, we’ve been out in the field over the last few months engaging with industry players and training providers to develop a workforce capability strategy that makes a strong case for change and investment.

We have talked with key industry associations, employers, Māori agribusiness, training providers, and government agencies to get their take on what the issues and challenges are.

What we’re hearing reflects what we’ve been hearing from the sector through our work over the past three-and-a-half years.

Current vocational education settings and funding aren’t working, and we’re seeing growing workforce shortages and falling training levels.

The sector is also wracked with uncertainty after 15 years of successive government reform.

Industry groups are telling us the system is getting harder to engage with, not easier.

Particularly unhelpful is that reforms have increasingly treated workplace-based informal training like provider-based classroom training.

This has made it increasingly difficult for employers to do formal training, and they’re doing less of it, when they should be getting rewarded for doing it, given the proven value it adds to their business, staff retention, and the economy.

The net effect is a decline in qualified workers.

We currently have over a fifth of the sector with relevant qualifications for the industry they’re working in.

Forecasts show that if current trends continue, this will drop by 20% by 2050.

For dairy, which has an outsize impact on exports, and was traditionally at about 40% qualified staff, we’re going to see that halve.

Things have to change if we want to double exports.

Food and fibre workers have an outsize impact on exports.

Chief executive of Muka Tangata Jeremy Baker.

On average, a food and fibre sector worker generates $158,000 worth of export value annually, compared to $16,000 for workers in other sectors.

Compared to other sectors, we also don’t have a large number of people undertaking training, but each one has an outsize impact.

The problem is that our volume-based funding disincentivises training strategically important, high-impact offerings.

For instance, the sector would love to train 20 irrigation technicians who would each generate millions of dollars of value.

But the system won’t fund it because it’s too few people.

Enabling such high-return training investments needs a different way of investing and delivering, but the returns will be there for NZ Inc.

All that said, I am excited by the conversations we’ve been having with industry as we scope the future and build a strategy to lead change.

A gamechanger in this process is the new sector workforce skills forecasting tool that we’ve built, enabling us and the industry to test scenarios out to 2050 and provide detailed insights into supply and demand.

It’s allowing us to have informed discussions with the sector and also with the Government to support the case for prioritising funding and design of qualifications to achieve this important economic goal.

I feel confident about the future.

Industry is increasingly seeing the value of working collaboratively to lead change.

We know that 40% of new workforce entrants come from other food and fibre industries.

By working together, we could develop skillsets that can work across the sector, building a qualified, adaptable and agile workforce.

We’ve talked to a lot of voices across the sector, but we’re always open to hearing more.

We’re working to have a strategy ready by the middle of the year.

This is all being done in the context of the current Government’s reforms, with Industry Standards Boards (ISB) set to replace Workforce Development Councils.

Our aim is that this strategy will provide a manifesto industry to work with the ISB that replaces Muka Tangata.