Rabobank GDT analysis with Emma Higgins

Photo / File

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Rabobank senior dairy analyst Emma Higgins is sticking with her $6.35 milk price, despite Jamie Mackay calling her "The Grinch" on The Country today.

"We do forecast on milk prices on a quarterly basis and we've only recently come out with that $6.35 figure ... we'll be re forecasting come December," Higgins said.

Meanwhile, the latest result in the Global Dairy Trade Auction showed how the market had remained "very resilient in the face of a global pandemic and a global recession," Higgins said.

The GDT Price Index lifted marginally by 0.4 per cent to USD 3,159/tonnes, with butter prices up over 3 per cent to USD 3,678/tonne.

Whole milk powder prices also remained buoyant, with a 0.3 per cent lift to US$3,037/MT. However, skim milk powder fell back 0.2 per cent to an average US$2851/MT.

Milk production continued to grow in most parts of the globe, Higgins said.

Australian milk supplies lifted 3.5 per cent year-on-year for August 2020, with season-to-date production 3.2 per cent higher than last season.

Rabobank senior dairy analyst Emma Higgins. Photo / Supplied

South American production was also tracking ahead "out of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay", Higgins said.

European milk collection was "a bit of a mixed bag" with German, French and Dutch milk supplies lower for August, but Ireland and Poland both up over 2 per cent year-on-year.

However, New Zealand's milk production was "the one to watch," Higgins said.

"I think what we'll see is milk production numbers - when they come out for September - they'll still be in positive territory, again for October as well."

The strength of New Zealand collections in the coming months would depend on meaningful rain to the east coast of both islands – more so the North Island, and particularly Waikato, according to Rabobank.

Listen below:

Key Results

AMF index down 0.5 per cent, average price US$4,110/MT
Butter index up 3.3 per cent, average price US$3,678/MT
Ched index up 3.0 per cent, average price US$3,803/MT
LAC index down 8.0 per cent, average price US$1,087/MT
SMP index down 0.2 per cent, average price US$2,851/MT
WMP index up 0.3 per cent, average price US$3,037/MT

Also in today's interview: Higgins took a look at how the weather in New Zealand could affect buyers in China.

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