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Home / Sport

The Stats Don't Lie: Round four preview

Herald online
15 Mar, 2012 07:46 PM5 mins to read

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RETURN: Once a Cane, now a Highlander, Andrew Hore will be looking to score points at the Cake Tin.
RETURN: Once a Cane, now a Highlander, Andrew Hore will be looking to score points at the Cake Tin.

RETURN: Once a Cane, now a Highlander, Andrew Hore will be looking to score points at the Cake Tin.

Opinion by

Round 4 sees the first of the New Zealand team byes, with the Crusaders not playing this weekend. Meanwhile the Chiefs play their first Australian side, the Blues continue their road trip in South Africa, and the Hurricanes have their first home game of the season which also doubles as their first game against another New Zealand side.

CHIEFS v BRUMBIES (referee Ian Smith, Aust)

These two sides have played seventeen times, with the Chiefs winning just five of those games.

In a seven year period between 2000 and 2007, the Brumbies defeated the Chiefs in every game played. Last year the Brumbies defeated the Chiefs 28-20 in Canberra, while the last victory the Chiefs had over the Brumbies was 10-7 in 2009.

The Chiefs have the second best lineout of the New Zealand teams (behind the Highlanders) with an 84 percent success rate on their own throw, while the Brumbies are fairly similar with an 86 percent success rate.

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The Chiefs are averaging 2.6 tries while the Brumbies are averaging 2.0 tries per game.

The teams are also closely matched in the average number of handling errors per game this season, with the Chiefs making eight and the Brumbies seven.

Watch for Robbie Robinson who has made at least one clean linebreak in each game he has played so far.

This will be referee Ian Smith's second game with the whistle this season. Last week he had control of the Reds v Rebels where he blew a total of 21 penalties.

STORMERS v BLUES (referee Jaco Peyper, SA)

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Of the fourteen games played between the two, the Blues are just ahead with eight wins. The last time they met the Stormers snuck a 28-26 win in Auckland last year.

The Blues have only won two games at Newlands, the last time being in 2009 when Paul Williams scored all the Blues' points with a try and three penalties to see them to a 14-8 victory.

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The Stormers are undefeated so far this season, having beaten the Hurricanes and the Sharks before having the bye last week. But they have struggled to score tries, with just two plus a penalty try scored to date.

The Blues have struggled with handling errors this season, averaging almost thirteen per game so far. Their lineout has also been wobbly, winning just 73 percent of their ball while the Stormers are running at almost 89 percent on their throws.

Linebreaks may have been where the Blues had the upper hand, averaging almost three per game while the Stormers have made just one per game. But injuries to backs Rudi Wulf and Isaia Toeava, plus Rene Ranger's two week suspension for a dangerous tackle, may limit their strike power this week.

Discipline will be key for the Blues this week, after conceding seventeen penalties and two yellow cards last week against the Bulls. The Stormers are averaging just under eight penalties conceded per game.

Referee Jaco Peyper has refereed in every round so far, and is awarding an average of 17.6 penalties per game.

HURRICANES v HIGHLANDERS (referee Bryce Lawrence, NZ)

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The Hurricanes have won ten of the seventeen games played between the two teams, but the Highlanders won the last game played by 13-6 in Invercargill last year.

Prior to last year the Hurricanes had won six successive games against the Highlanders, but history tells us this could be a close game. The last six matches have ended with a margin of seven points or less separating the two sides at the final whistle.

The Hurricanes are one of just five sides to have scored four tries in a game this season (last week vs the Force), along with the Chiefs, Bulls, Waratahs and Sharks.

The Highlanders have the best lineout of the New Zealand sides, winning 87 percent of their own ball. But they may need to mix things up as they have used Adam Thomson to win more than half of that possession, something the Hurricanes will be well aware of.

Referee Bryce Lawrence had control of the Highlanders' game against the Waratahs last week, and dished out a total of 19 penalties in the game. The majority came at the breakdown with seven penalties blown for supporting players going off their feet and sealing off the ball at the breakdown.

Tim Bateman made seventeen tackles last week and will need to make some more this week to keep Phil Burleigh (two clean linebreaks in his last two games) under wraps.

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Beauden Barrett goes into this game with a 93 percent goal kicking average after the first three games. The Highlanders don't have the same luxury with their goal kickers, Lima Sopoaga missed both his conversion attempts last week while Colin Slade managed to land three from five attempts at goal.

- For more stats visit haka.co.nz

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