The All Blacks’ World Cup rethink: Why the narrative has changed

All Blacks captain Sam Cane celebrates a win over the Wallabies. Could he be lifting the World Cup in October? Photo /Photosport

OPINION

It wouldn’t be fair to characterise Super Rugby Pacific to date as a phoney war, but there should be a sense this weekend of the big-name players unveiling their true selves.

This should be the weekend when the nation gets a better sense of how much talent there is in the system and a gauge on what level of expectation to hold when the All Blacks assemble in a few weeks.

And it may be, based on what we have seen already and what is likely to come, that it’s time for optimism to creep back into the narrative: time for a rethink, if not a major reset.

Ask around and the word on the street is that the All Blacks have no hope of winning the World Cup. They don’t have the talismanic captain they need, apparently. The coach can’t coach. A once brilliant halfback has become too easy to defend against.

There are two playmakers but even between them, they don’t have all they need to control a test. There is no obvious candidate to pick at blindside and the preferred centre has the speed of a wing but unfortunately, he also has the natural instinct of trying to score himself and never passing.

This is the word on the street and the reason so many feel the All Blacks won’t progress past the quarterfinals when they get to France.

But there is a disconnect between this prevailing negativity and the evidence that has been on view most weeks in Super Rugby and which is likely to intensify in these knockout rounds.

Sam Cane has been rock-solid for the Chiefs and it’s a fallacy to sayhe’s not the sort of leader the All Blacks need to win a World Cup.

Aaron Smith remains the best passer in the world and the speed and accuracy with which he flings the ball about is a natural weapon in itself.

Aaron Smith and the Highlanders have seen their season come to an end. Photo / Getty Images

And come the World Cup, watch him surprise a few defences with his ability to pick his time to run.

As for Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett, watch them step up in these next few weeks and control the games in which they play.

Certainly, Barrett appears to have been biding his time this year to really show what he’s got, but again it’s nonsense to doubt the capabilities of these two players - who, in their different ways, can deliver the mix of pass, run and kick that the All Blacks will need.

Shannon Frizell has this year looked every inch like a bruising, international blindside. Scott Barrett has, too, albeit while playing at lock. Likewise, Luke Jacobson has established his credentials as a crunching loose forward.

And while Rieko Ioane may be prone to holding the ball for too long, he still looks like a deadly piece of weaponry in the midfield.

He’s maybe the only centre in world rugby who has the pace to make an outside break in these times of defensive austerity, so no one should really be screaming at him to pass when he can do so much damage when he doesn’t.

What should become more apparent in these next few weeks is that New Zealand has not declined as a rugby force to the extent many suggest it has.

The last few years have been difficult, troubled even. Results have not met expectations. The All Blacks lost their way.

They didn’t have the right coaching group in place in 2020 or 2021 and Covid impacted everything.

Super Rugby was smashed apart. Teams lived in bubbles. Too many players were popping in and out of Japan, a war raged between the professional cohort and their employer over a private equity deal, and New Zealand Rugby’s executive and board couldn’t bring themselves to sack head coach Ian Foster but nor were they quite able to unreservedly support him.

During this disruption and chaos, the All Blacks never found a style of rugby that was right for them – that captured the essence of who they are, and many have seemingly written off this World Cup cycle, waiting to emotionally reinvest and believe again only when Scott Robertson takes over next year.

But some of the rugby produced this year, and what happens in the next few weeks, should serve as an antidote to this default pessimism.

There are good players playing well across the country and more reasons to be quietly confident about the All Blacks than there are to be openly derisive.

There are mobile, athletic props to pick from now. Men such as Tyrel Lomax, Ethan de Groot and Tamaiti Williams who can scrummage and don’t lie around on the floor after they have made a tackle.

Samisoni Taukei’aho is a beast and Codie Taylor and Dane Coles have got a bit of life left in them, as they showed last week.

Codie Taylor of the Crusaders and Dane Coles of the Hurricanes square off. Photo / Photosport

Sam Whitelock can pick apart any lineout and Brodie Retallick just needs to stay fit to be intimidating.

Ardie Savea is Ardie Savea, and Jordie Barrett is a rough diamond who may just come of age this year as a second five who can run straight, tackle hard, kick goals and take high balls.

And in the back three, it’s semi-ridiculous to contemplate how the All Blacks choose between Mark Telea, Will Jordan and Leicester Fainga’anuku and that’s before we even get to Shaun Stevenson and Emoni Narawa.

Super Rugby Pacific, even though it hasn’t yet fully warmed up, has provided enough reason for those who have followed the fortunes of the national team since the last World Cup to cast aside the doom and gloom and start to believe in the possibility the All Blacks of 2023 are capable of making history.