Yachting: Spine-tingling racing just too close to call

BILL KOCH, skipper of America3, winners of the America's Cup in 1992, casts a statistical eye over the chances of the Louis Vuitton finalists.

Several months ago, racing experts were picking Prada to win the Louis Vuitton Cup. I was one of them.

Even before the first gun had sounded, the Italians seemed to have it all: a $US80 million programme, a strong organisation, no-nonsense leadership, talented sailors and a shore team that could replace a broken mast within hours. Experience was the only thing they lacked.

Now, yachting observers believe AmericaOne out of San Francisco have the momentum and a slight advantage.

After losing the first race to a mechanical mishap, skipper Paul Cayard won eight consecutive races in the semifinals when it counted most.

AmericaOne have an adequate $US32 million programme, an excellent shore team, outstanding sailors and Cayard has four America's Cup campaigns under his belt.

Prada lost three critical matches in the semifinals, and so the experts now give AmericaOne a slight edge. The sole reason: experience.

There is a general consensus that Prada and AmericaOne possess versatile all-round boats. Prada are considered faster upwind in a breeze, AmericaOne quicker downwind. Some consider AmericaOne to be faster in light air.

However, expert opinions do not win races. When America3 reached the finals in the 1992 America's Cup, 24 out of 27 sailing pundits picked Il Moro, skippered by Cayard, to beat us four to one.

It was just the opposite. We discovered that being an underdog had its advantages.

The finals of this Louis Vuitton Cup are too close to call. Will Prada's extensive training and unlimited resources overcome Cayard's experience?

A careful analysis of their five races shows some interesting facts.

AmericaOne has won three and lost two against Prada. In one of these races, Prada had to withdraw because its mast broke.

Having a boat that does not break is an important part of this game. Prada's breakage rate is only three incidences out of 40 races; AmericaOne's is five out of 40.

However, two of Prada's three breakages occurred in the semifinals, compared to one for AmericaOne. Both teams lost a race in the semis because of breakage.

The races have been extremely close. Prada won a race by 17s, the other by 1m 6s. AmericaOne won their races by 23s and 8s.

This has been the closest racing not only in this Louis Vuitton Cup, but in the history of the America's Cup. The median win has been 1m 14s and the average 1m 53s for all of the 195 races that have occurred to date.

Prada had their 1m 6s win in light air (6.4 knots). They also won in 14.2 knots (17s). She broke her mast in 12.4 knots. AmericaOne won in 12.0 knots (8s) and 12.4 knots (29s). In these multi-leg courses, Prada have gained nine out of a total of 11 windward legs by an average of 21s; AmericaOne gained on two out of 11 by an average of 41s. In the 11 leeward legs, Prada gained five legs for an average of 19s; AmericaOne gained six legs for an average of 27s.

Prada have won the starts three to two. They have also been the first boat to the windward mark three out of four times. This is important. The first boat to the windward mark has an enormous advantage in that she can play the wind shifts first, and/or closely cover, cutting off any passing lanes.

In the Prada-AmericaOne races, the first boat to the windward mark has won only 75 per cent of the time. More impressively, the boats have passed each other five times in four races - twice after the first windward mark.

In the 11 leeward legs, AmericaOne have passed Prada three times and Prada passed AmericaOne once. In the windward legs, Prada have a slight advantage, passing AmericaOne once.

AmericaOne have never passed Prada in the windward legs. From a macro point of view, Prada have made seven gross mistakes, including four penalties in 40 races. AmericaOne have made nine errors, receiving three penalties in 40 races. In the semifinals, the boats made five gross mistakes - Prada made three and received two penalties; AmericaOne committed two and earned one penalty. There have been numerous other small mistakes made by both teams.

What does all of this tell us? The boats are extremely close and the teams are about evenly balanced.

The upcoming races should be very close and exciting. Both teams have shown they can win when it counts and are mentally tough enough to come back after a major setback.

What it will take for Prada to win is to keep her upwind speed advantage while speeding downwind and improving her downwind covering and tactics. For AmericaOne to win she must increase her upwind speed.

The winning team will have no breakdowns, get a conservative start, pick the first wind shift for the first crossing, religiously stay between their opponents and the next mark, and be mentally tough enough to withstand the pressure.

The winners will be the team who make the fewest mistakes.

Regardless of who wins, both will need to dramatically reduce their errors if they hope to compete against Team New Zealand.

This should be the most exciting challenger series final in America's Cup history. The best five out of nine series could well be decided on the final race.