KEY POINTS:
They got away with it in the round-robin competition - but unless Chris Dickson's America's Cup team improve their starts and boat positioning, they are looking down the barrel of a semifinal loss to Luna Rossa.
BMW Oracle Racing now trail Luna Rossa 3-1 in the best-of-nine race
semifinals series. Yesterday in Valencia they suffered a 23s defeat after Luna Rossa tactician Torben Grael, now referred to as the "Holy Grael" found better pressure on what was a fairly even racetrack
As the Daily Telegraph put it, Grael's judgement of when to sail the breeze and when to sail the opponent and impose control makes his races compelling viewing. Dickson and Oracle must be wondering how to race him.
Altering the performance profile of USA98 may have blunted her previous edge. Since the start of the semifinals, a bigger rudder has been fitted, adding bite at the expense of downwind speed.
Another loss overnight will see Luna Rossa on match-point - which few would have predicted. Oracle have trailed Luna Rossa around every mark in four races and their win in race two came after they rolled the Italians on the final run.
In the pre-start, Luna Rossa's James Spithill has completely dominated Dickson. Yachting commentator Peter Lester said Oracle are fast enough but the Luna Rossa afterguard are putting the boat in a better position in the crucial parts of the race.
"You have to be at least even off the start on the advantaged side to get bow forward. Then you need to be able to dictate the terms of the layline.
"Luna Rossa continue to play their own game. They are not falling into a trap of classical match racing. Although there was a lot of praise about Oracle's come-from-behind wins in the round-robin, you can't rely on that as a tactic."
In the last cup, Oracle changed their afterguard during the round-robin competition when the results weren't going their way. Syndicate owner Larry Ellison said then that when a team isn't performing, changes have to be made. Just what changes Oracle could make is difficult to say. They could let tactician Gavin Brady steer or bringing in a new tactician - Bertrand Pace.
Team navigator Peter Isler said Ellison has full confidence in what is going on, both on the boat and in the team. "We never feel good about losing and being 3-1 down is not where we wanted to be at this stage," Isler said.
"There is nothing broken, there is nothing to fix in the team right now. We just need to start posting one win a day on the board.
"Certainly that is clearly within the realms of possibility for our team and that is what we are going to go out and do."
Lester said Oracle are in a tough position. "But I wouldn't write them off, either."
Yesterday's race provided the mellowest of pre-starts yet between Dickson and Spithill. Oracle wanted the right and got it.
But it was the left that had slightly better pressure and Luna Rossa were on it. The two engaged in a tacking duel up the first beat, with Luna Rossa bouncing Oracle out the right. The Italians rounded the top mark 13s ahead. They defended well on the first run, losing just a second to USA98.
Up the second beat, the Italians allowed Oracle to break away to the left, while they remained on the right. The separation at one point was a staggering 2700m. For a moment it looked like Oracle had taken the lead. But, when the boats rejoined in the centre of the course, Luna Rossa were a good five lengths ahead. Oracle embarked on a gybing dual down the final run but it was to no avail as the Italians crossed the line 23s ahead.
Luna Rossa skipper Francesco de Angelis said every single victory is important. "Each race is difficult and going home with an extra point is always a good thing.
"We are learning something new from every race, pushing the boat and crew to grow at every chance we get."