KEY POINTS:
Team New Zealand operations director Kevin Shoebridge is reluctant to predict how the America's Cup challengers' final with Italy's Luna Rossa will pan out.
While many yachting commentators believe the Louis Vuitton Cup decider beginning off Valencia on Saturday (NZT) is likely to take most, if not all,
of the all nine races to decide, Shoebridge isn't sure what to think.
He points to the manner of Luna Rossa's passage as an example of how expectations can go awry.
In their semifinal against big-budget American syndicate Oracle Racing, the Italians defied predictions of a tight contest to score a crushing 5-1 win.
"There was a lot of speculation about what was going to happen with Oracle and Prada [Luna Rossa], that it was going to go nine races as well," he said.
"You just don't know. There's definitely the ability for it to go the distance. It just depends on the day and who's sailing well, who's got their team together."
Certainly the statistics indicate there is little to separate Team NZ and Luna Rossa.
The boats they are expected to take into the final, NZL92 and ITA94, have met twice -- in the LV Cup round robins -- for one win each.
Since the start of the challengers' competition, Team NZ have won 22 of their 27 races, Luna 21 of 26.
Looking at more detailed data from the semifinals, the official americascup.com website concluded that the New Zealanders seemed to do better when racing was close and required rapid manoeuvres.
The Italians, meanwhile, relied more on longer straightline sailing and good calls on wind shifts.
Team NZ had a couple of days off following their 5-2 semifinal defeat of Spain's Desafio Espanol, before turning their attention to the final in earnest.
The preparations included a surprise couple of friendly races with Swiss defenders Alinghi today, with both syndicates reportedly using their older boats.
Observers gave contradictory reports on who won the contests over a shortened course.
Team NZ also sparred with Alinghi in mid-April before the start of the LV Cup regatta, a move that didn't go down well with other challengers.
On the practice course, Shoebridge said skipper Dean Barker and the crew had done a lot of work on their starts, manoeuvres around the marks and boatspeed.
They had also been analysing the starting technique of young Australian gun James Spithill, whose dominating performance against Oracle's New Zealand skipper, Chris Dickson, was a revelation.
Shoebridge said there was no question that Luna Rossa and Spithill were starting and sailing well.
"He's very aggressive and his timing is very good," he said.
"He seems to be able to wriggle out of tight situations."
But at the same time, the fact that Oracle had a poor semifinal had to be taken into account.
"You have to look at it both ways," he said.
"It's not that one boat was going blindingly quick or one team were sailing a whole lot better. It's just that the other team might have been slightly off their game."
Shoebridge indicated that Team NZ had made no major changes to NZL92 ahead of the final.
"We're consistently trying different things, little bits and pieces to try to make the boat go faster," he said.
"But once again, we're getting to the point of just wanting to settle in with the equipment we know and sail well."
The forecast for the first three races is for typical Valencian seabreeze conditions of around nine to 14 knots.
While NZL92 is believed to perform better in the light, Shoebridge said Team NZ would be happy with whatever the elements threw up.
"We had that last race with the Spanish when it was a fresh and bumpy day and we felt comfortable out there," he said.
"Over a nine-race series, you're going to get a bit of everything."
- NZPA