The answer probably won't be known until September, when the challengers will have finally set up base in New Zealand. But clues will emerge early next year when syndicates start applying to the regatta measurers for sail numbers for their new boats.
The New Zealand Herald contacted the 16 campaigns which
have paid their entry fees and found some of them - such as cup hero-cum-villain Dennis Conner - still searching for money to start building yachts.
So far only the collapsed Spirit of Hong Kong syndicate looks like pulling out early.
THE MAIN CONTENDERS
Prada Yacht Club
Punta Ala, Italy
Head: Patricio Bertelli
Skipper: Francesco de Angelis
With the backing of European fashion house Prada, the Italians have a budget the rest envy. They were the first challengers to come to Auckland, training here last summer, and they are back, their base in the cup village almost completed.
They will start sailing next week in 1992 cup-winner America 3 and 1995 boat Mighty Mary, after testing them in Punta Ala over the Northern Hemisphere summer.
They plan to have two new boats, drawn up by American Doug Petersen, who helped to design Team New Zealand's black boats.
Their sailing strength lies with New Zealanders - Rod Davis, Don Cowie and Alan Smith - but they can only coach. None of them has the nationality qualifications to sail. The interest will be to see how big a role money plays in performance on the water.
Young America
New York Yacht Club, United States
Head: John Marshall
Skipper: Ed Baird
They're here and they're sailing, even though they said they wouldn't be. New York hadn't planned to have a practice run in Auckland before the challenger series but, thanks to transport sponsors, they will stay until the end of December.
They will build two new boats, designed by New Zealander Bruce Farr.
In Auckland, Young America are using two trialhorses, which have sailed over 120 days off Rhode Island in the last two United States summers.
"The conditions in Rhode Island are probably as close to Auckland as anywhere you'll get in the world,' says spokeswoman Jane Eagleson.
Three ex-Team New Zealanders are in the sailing crew - Ross Halcrow, Jamie Gale and skipper Baird.
AmericaOne
St Francis Yacht Club, San Francisco
Head: Douglas Smith
Skipper: Paul Cayard
AmericaOne are the dark horses of the challenger series.
They already have the makings of a class crew under skipper Cayard, who sailed in the previous two cup finals, and tactician John Kostecki.
They have an impressive design team headed by Bruce Nelson, responsible for Young America's Mermaid boat four years ago. They scored a coup securing three major sponsors in the technology field, including Ford.
Cayard will birng his crew to Auckland in January to carry out testing on oneAustralia - the one that didn't sink off San Diego. The boat will trial against their new yacht at Long Beach in May.
THE PROBABLES
Aloha Racing
Waikiki Yacht Club, United States
Head: John Kolius
Skipper: John Kolius
A large American healthcare company has picked up the tab for almost all of Aloha's design costs.
Construction of the first of two boats, Abracadabra 2000, starts next month at Ko Olina, an hour from downtown Waikiki.
Kolius' project members will spend all of their trialling time in Hawaiian waters, where winds are usually at the strong end of the scale.
Until now the crew have trained in a One Design 48 boat called Abracadabra in regattas such as the Kenwood Cup.
America True
San Francisco Yacht Club
Head: Dawn Riley
Skipper: Dawn Riley
A total of 170 Americans put their names forward to try for two places on Dawn Riley's "co-ed" challenge.
The successful two will take their places next to New Zealanders - John Cutler and possibly Leslie Egnot, who both helmed boats in the last America's Cup.
Cutler has played a key role in America True's campaign since he jumped ship from Team Caribbean. He's a designer, sailing director and a member of the afterguard.
The whole team come home with Cutler at Christmas, having bought one of New York's training boats, Spirit of Rhode Island. They will stay in Auckland until March.
While their budget has not been covered yet, America True say they expect to make "some big announcements" before the end of the year.
Nippon Challenge
Nippon Yacht Club, Japan
Head: Tatsumitsu Yamasaki
Skipper: Peter Gilmour
The Japanese were expected to be the first challengers to set up in Auckland. In the last two cups they arrived in San Diego a year in advance. But this time they won't reach town until a month before the starter's gun.
Japan's economic crisis has hit the Nippon sponsors hard. But the syndicate has secured 60 per cent of their budget.
Says Emili Miura: "We'll work really, really hard to get the rest of the money and try to get the people of Japan psyched up for the challenge."
The syndicate has had to be restructured, and they will build just one boat, ready for the Northern Hemisphere summer.
It will be the first time in Nippon's three challenges that a New Zealander won't be involved. Australian Gilmour, the world's No 1 matchrace skipper, is the only foreigner on board.
The Spanish Challenge
Monte Real Club de Yates de Bayona/Real Club Nautico de Valencia
Head: Pedro Campos
Skipper: Pedro Campos
The Spanish proudly claim to have reached their financial target but say it is a "secret" where the money has come from. They have two major sponsors, who they will name next month.
Under the guidance of cup veteran Campos, they will start building the first of possibly two boats next month, and plan to come to New Zealand next July.
With an all-year-round summer at home, the crew will continue testing until then with three old cup boats.
"This is an event we had to be in, because of sailing history. The sailing people of Spain expect us to compete in the America's Cup," said Guillermo Campos.
FAST 2000
Club Nautique de Morges, Switzerland
Head: Marc Pajot
Skipper: Jochen Schumann
The bright yellow boat of FAST 2000 will be cutting through the waters of the Hauraki Gulf this December.
It is their training boat, sailed by France in the 95 cup, which the Swiss team have been using on Lake Geneva. The crew, led by world champion helmsman Schumann, will stay in Auckland until February.
Building will have already begun on their new racing yacht, to be called Swiss Made.
The Holy Grail
Cruising Yacht Club of Australia
Head: Syd Fischer
Skipper: Yet to be named
The Sydneysiders have yet to find a place to tie up their boat in Auckland. They refused to accept the "unrealistic price tag" for a base in the cup village and are now looking for an alternative home, including a floating barge.
There's no hurry. They intend to stay and train on Sydney Harbour right up to the start of the challenger series, because they reckon the sailing conditions there are so close to Auckland's.
They could bring two boats to New Zealand - a new one and Fischer's Sydney 95.
Yaka France
Union National Pour le Course au Large
Head: Xavier de Lesquen
Skipper: Bertrand Pace
Seventy-five per cent of the Yaka crew must be aged under 21 for the cup - an idea driven by sailing director Luc Gelluseau. But their skipper, Pace, is no teenager.
The youth factor has helped draw in sponsors. Spokesman Pierre Leducq says they are comfortably financed, with two major backers, communications and computer companies.
Yaka are poised to sign for the last base in the cup village but they won't be flying in to use it until August.
Team Dennis Conner
Cortez Racing Association San Diego, United States
Head: Dennis Conner
Skipper: Dennis Conner
Imagine an America's Cup without Dirty Den? Conner is supposedly used to sailing by the seat of his pants where money's concerned.
His right-hand-man, Bill Trenkle, says every cup challenge the pair have worked in has been tough financially and this time is no exception.
"In 87 we were struggling to the very end. In 83 we were using coffee cans to mix the paint in. But I don't think having all the money in the world will win this regatta."
Time is ticking by. The Conner camp have yet to contract a boatbuilder or pull together a crew. They have had tryouts on USA 34, the Stars and Stripes boat which won the 95 defender trials.
THE POSSIBLES
Spirit of Britain
Royal Dorset Yacht Club Britain
Head: Angus Melrose
Skipper: Chris Law/Lawrie Smith
The nervous Brits have no sponsors signed up but they're keeping a stiff upper lip.
"It's a very, very tough market. There's a huge amount of nervousness around British industry, particularly with the situation in your part of the world," says Melrose.
"It's taking us substantially longer to get up and running. All the ducks are in a row, but we had hoped to be all signed up in July."
The British will also have to look elsewhere for a base in Auckland, now the village is full.
There's been a reshuffle in the management of the project and no skipper has been appointed yet. It's likely to come down to round-the-world skipper Smith and world No 2 matchracer Law.
Team Caribbean
St Thomas Yacht Club, United States Virgin Islands
Head: Peter Holmberg
Skipper: Peter Holmberg
The Team Caribbean camp was left unscathed when Hurricane Georges ripped through St Thomas. But Holmberg's syndicate still have some quick recovery work to do if they are to spin into Auckland this time next year.
"We have no sponsor announcements yet," Holmberg says. "We're just a lean heart-and-soul project."
The problem? "The five-year gap between cups. It's too long - I want to change that."
So far, Team Caribbean have attracted only enthusiastic local sailors but Holmberg is hunting out experienced foreigners. He has already lost New Zealand helmsman John Cutler to America True.
Age of Russia
St Petersburg Yacht Club, Russia
Head: Nikolai Krylov
Skipper: To be named
"We're a little bit behind," says Krylov, who speaks from his office with a reputable New York law firm. "We expected to have the money in the bank by now.
"We have just started testing for our new boat and we haven't go any sponsors in writing yet. But overall we are optimistic that we will make it."
Krylov says the Russians have been stung by their country's ailing economy but they have verbal commitments from financial backers.
They now face a series of searches: for money, a crew and a base in Auckland if they turn up.
Esprit France
Yacht Club de Cannes/Grau-du-Roi, Port Camargue
Head: Admiral Renee Marqueze
Esprit France are the only campaign who do not intend to build a new boat. They plan to charter FRA40, the boat now being used by the Swiss, to bring to Auckland for racing.
Rumours abounded this year that the two French syndicates would join forces for 1999 but after preliminary talks nothing eventuated. Esprit France is a cooperative venture involving two French syndicates who each paid the original $100,000 entry fee 18 months ago.
Spirit of Hong Kong
Aberdeen Yacht Club Hong Kong
There is an iceberg's chance in Hawaii of the Aberdeen Yacht Club burgee flying in the cup village next spring.
New Zealand maritime suppliers are still owed money by the challenge, as are the staff hired in Auckland to set up base. The challenge remains open - it's up to the yacht club to call it quits.
So who's coming to Auckland next October?
The answer probably won't be known until September, when the challengers will have finally set up base in New Zealand. But clues will emerge early next year when syndicates start applying to the regatta measurers for sail numbers for their new boats.
The New Zealand Herald contacted the 16 campaigns which
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