With speeds of up to 50kn, a lot can go wrong on the new AC75s. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
What's the deal with all this controversy over the course areas for this America's Cup?
On one hand, it continues a long and fascinating history of game-playing as competitors seek to gain an advantage or "level the playing field", depending on your perspective.
And the five potential courses for the 2021 regatta have vastly different sailing conditions which will hugely affect these AC75 foiling yachts, giving the debate plenty of significance.
The course controversy today reached a resolution, after a wrangle in which an arbitration panel ruled that two inner harbour courses could not be used. So now, all five courses are back in play.
Yet the radical new designs of these spectacular America's Cup boats could make the course debate a moot point in the final analysis.
Auckland's previous America's Cups had three adjacent inner Hauraki Gulf courses, meaning all competitors sailed in the same conditions.
This 2021 America's Cup will be very different.
Course A off the East Coast Bays replicates the area used in 2000 and 2003. However, Course B off Takapuna, Course C off North Head, Course D south of Rangitoto Island and Course E near the south coast of Waiheke Island are very different places to sail, as any old salt from the Auckland sailing community will attest.
So why has Emirates Team New Zealand, the event organiser, selected this diverse range of locations with varying conditions?
The public answer is to provide options for the regatta director to run races that are able to produce the best possible sailing.
The real answer is that the defender is trying to retain an advantage they may have over the challengers with regard to knowledge of specific conditions in each course area (remembering ETNZ has been sailing in these areas for far longer than anyone else).
In addition, when the nearly month-long regatta occurs to select the final challenger, they will become intimately familiar with these areas in a racing context. In contrast, ETNZ has no one to race against over this period.
Isolation has always been one of the biggest problems for America's Cup defenders who are denied race practice and the chance to test themselves against the other competitors. In contrast, the challengers have a long series of races with one another and the opportunity to get race sharp.
And yet, despite the controversy and disputes over courses being so prominent, I predict it won't actually matter.
These new AC75 foiling monohulls are the first and second iterations of a brand-new design concept and there will be significant speed differences between the teams.
Even a small speed difference of say one per cent will equate to hundreds of metres of separation over a few minutes when the yachts are travelling at nearly 50 knots.
Don't get me wrong, just because one yacht dominates another speed wise does not mean the contest will be boring.
Firstly, the contest is a technology one and these AC75s are seriously cool pieces of kit and amazing to watch.
Secondly, because they are so fast and so new, when sailing them at the edge of control at close to 100km/h things can go wrong at any moment.
Thirdly, the forces and loads on these foiling-flying machines are incredible. Breakages are always a possibility. So, it is never over until it is over (the ghost of San Francisco looms whenever I say this).
Another emerging issue is the increasing likelihood of a La Niña weather event which will bring a much higher number of moderate to fresh north-easterly winds in Auckland this summer.
These wind conditions are generally quite stable in direction and strength – but they produce very different sea-states in the different course areas.
In the course areas off the East Coast Bays and Takapuna, the north-easterly produces solid waves, typically over a metre in height. Off Takapuna, in an outgoing tide, these waves jack up to become steep and sometimes breaking.
In contrast the courses off the southern shores of Rangitoto and Waiheke are sheltered from the north-east wind direction and the seas are much flatter and more benign.
This is a big deal for foiling yachts. Flat water allows you to use smaller foils and sail the yacht much more aggressively. In contrast, in waves, especially steep breaking waves, foiling yachts can become a nightmare to control.
The turbulent water can cause the foils to lose their grip on the water (ventilate) and a dramatic crash-down can happen in less than a second.
Waves are not a foiling yacht's friend, creating much higher risks and more challenges. It's exciting to watch, but nerve wracking to sail the things.
The sailing community is in waiting mode, for when ETNZ reveals and launches their second AC75 (presumably its race boat). My understanding is that boat two is completed and being held back for tactical reasons.
This represents a trade-off, between valuable hours on the water and keeping the challengers in the dark.
In 2013, Emirates Team New Zealand got this call wrong for San Francisco and as a result Oracle was able to eventually copy, catch up and get past them, just, to win.
For Bermuda in 2017, ETNZ got this call right – opponents did not have enough time to redesign their entire systems to use cyclors to drive their hydraulic power.
What innovations have ENTZ got this time? It cannot be too long before they show their hand, but hopefully it is long enough for their sake.
Finally, a prediction: The next controversy to flare up will be "casual hookups". That is, when does the scenario of two competitors sailing alongside each other for extended periods tip into "sailing or testing in a co-ordinated manner" which is not permitted under the rules for this event?
It's happening already, the sailors cannot help themselves. Sooner or later someone will test this via the Arbitration Panel. Watch this space.
The move comes after Burling and Team New Zealand parted ways earlier this year.