Now that Team New Zealand have qualified for the America's Cup finals, it's worth a quick analysis of the races they have not won.
They lost two in the qualifiers (both against Oracle Team USA), two in the qualifier semi-final against Land Rover Team BAR and three in the qualifierfinal against Artemis.
Against Oracle Team USA, both losses were set up by similar mistakes: trying to do a quick tack in front of Oracle at the top left gate. Neither of them worked and they got passed. That's a simple error to resolve and I don't think they will do that again.
One loss against Land Rover Team BAR was when Ainslie got the jump at the start and just camped on ETNZ the entire race and gave no passing lanes. ETNZ did not go for a split early enough and could not pass through simple boat-speed.
The second loss against Team BAR was the pitch-pole - set up by getting owned in the pre-start and pushed way high in the start box in strong breeze. We don't want to do that again!
The losses against Artemis were all when Artemis got an early lead and just defended it like crazy.
So the work-ons for ETNZ are:
1. Continue with the development for making the boat faster - always has been and will be no different this time - the determining factor in who wins the America's Cup.
2. Reliability - breaks downs will cost you. Especially in two-race days if you have a breakage in the first race of the day.
3. Pre-starts: Still need to get these more consistent and a win - loss record of 50% would be a good target. This will not be easy against Spithill.
4. First reach speed. Artemis and Oracle have been optimising their port foil for that first reach off the start-line. They trade off some speed upwind on starboard tack - but they must consider it worth it to have a greater chance of leading around mark 1. Given ETNZ's 100% win stats when they lead around mark one, it's worth considering for ETNZ as well.
5. Reducing tactical mistakes, especially in key mark rounding situations.
6. Eliminating stupid un-forced errors such as entering the start box early and going out of bounds.
I don't want to focus on the negatives too much here though.
They are getting a huge number of things right, which is why they are now the America's Cup challenger. I have been especially impressed with:
1. Composure, both on and off the water. Nobody is getting flustered or angry or to high or too low. They are fronting when they have made mistakes and are just getting on with the job of improving.
2. Boat-speed. Aotearoa is never slow, and sometimes she is devastatingly quick. Especially in under 10 knots of wind speed.
3. Maneouvres. Amazing control through tacks, gybes and mark roundings.
4. Learning quickly. The team are getting better, still making some mistakes - but we can see the improvement. The more they race the better they are getting.
5. Resilience and team strength. The pitch-pole was a defining moment for me - this team is tight, focussed, driven and are keeping their eye on the prize.
Absolutely, but make no mistake, Team Oracle USA are formidable and they have a point up already and huge talent, resources and ability to screw the scrum in their favour.
Team Oracle USA are still the favourites in my mind - but we Kiwis do pretty well as an underdog ("cat").
