KEY POINTS:
If the America's Cup match is even, Team New Zealand will win, because they have come through the challenger series.
History says the team that comes through the Louis Vuitton has a higher chance of winning the America's Cup than the defender.
Alinghi and Team New Zealand have
raced six times in the past four months so they will have some idea of each other's performance. Team New Zealand are very comfortable with where they are at.
But I still have this nagging feeling that Alinghi might have something up their sleeve to make them quicker.
Maybe they have made advances in keel deflection, or maybe it is something to do with the way the rig, keel and bulb interact with each other. But I don't think it will be even - one team will be dominant.
Alinghi's late announcement of their racing crew is interesting. Did they leave it until late because it was a good news story or because they hadn't made up their minds?
I suspect they'd made up their minds a little while ago and were just playing games. If they really did leave it until this late it must have created some pressure within the team. The teams are evenly matched when you look at the one-on-one matchups. Alinghi are older and are not the team of 2003. Their ability, experience and track record speaks volumes but let's not forget that Russell Coutts is not there. The dynamic is different.
Some of the Alinghi crew, such as Ed Baird, Brad Butterworth and Murray Jones, are getting a bit long in the tooth.
If it becomes a physical grind Team New Zealand look as if they are in better nick. They look stronger and more passionate.
The two sides have taken different approaches leading up to the match. Team New Zealand have gone into "lockdown mode". Aside from the team very few people have been allowed inside the base. However, Alinghi have been in the media taking a few swipes at Team New Zealand.
Does that mean they feel a little bit vulnerable or was it "let's fire one over the fence and rattle Team New Zealand's cage". It was interesting that the swipes came from Alinghi owner Ernesto Bertarelli - just because he is owner and until now he has been above all that verbal sparring.
It looks like Team New Zealand have used the time since the Louis Vuitton final well. They have given themselves a lot of time to freshen up. If you go out and beat yourself up on the water doing more manoeuvres and more starts at this late stage it is not going to make any difference. Physical and mental fitness will be most important.
