KEY POINTS:
Luna Rossa helmsman James Spithill has to go for it in the prestart against BMW Oracle Racing in their semifinal clash.
Luna Rossa will have to attack. If it becomes a boat-on-boat race, Oracle are a bit quicker.
Also if Oracle get two races ahead they'll beat the
Italians comfortably.
If Luna Rossa could get up on Oracle in the early races then it will put Chris Dickson under pressure and pressure affects teams in different ways.
Luna Rossa are making a lot of changes to their boat - changing the keel, bulb and rig - which can be risky.
Is it a reaction or was it planned? Oracle are also understood to have a lot more new gear coming. It is understood they are testing a new bulb.
Oracle and Team New Zealand are going to be very similar hardware-wise. They'll each have their strengths and weaknesses in the different conditions.
Team New Zealand won't have any difficulty with Desafio Espanol in the semifinals. The Spanish have reached their goal and they have said that. New Zealand should win 5-0.
It is very apparent Team New Zealand are very settled with their equipment. I don't even know if they are going to alter the boats now.
It looked like NZL92 was configured for 9-11 knots. Once the boat leans over, and it does lean over easily because it is so narrow, it picks up its waterline length and sails long. When that has happened it has looked potent - at least even in speed to Oracle.
I would discount the last race against Oracle. Oracle did it to themselves. Team New Zealand are not 1m 34s quicker. When they come together again in the final, it will be a lot closer.
The New Zealanders went into the series as the top challenger and the expectation was that they would roll on but they got a huge reality check. Down the track it could be a good thing because there is nothing like a good shake-up to get Kiwi teams going.
Losing strategist Adam Beashel to injury and the first race loss to Mascalzone rattled them.
They went on to lose to Luna Rossa on penalty and were then sailed around by Oracle to finish the first round robin third.
But the potential was always there and it was only a matter of time before the systems began to work.
We have seen them regroup from a similar situation last year and they did again this time, finishing round robin two undefeated. They are still two or three races away from their best. Winning is a habit.
There were two teams that didn't quite live up to expectation in the round robin competition - Victory Challenge and Mascalzone Latino.
The Victory Challenge boat didn't look that good in the light, shifty conditions early in round one.
When the wind got a bit stronger they looked all right. They were a team that didn't get a lot of their funding until quite late. When they did get the money they ran out of time.
Mascalzone Latino looked very good after the last pre-regatta. Their second boat looked quite fast. But they were fined twice during the regatta for silly things - using the wrong paint on their boat and not attaching their topmast backstay correctly. They were slack and should have known better.
