KEY POINTS:
I don't buy into the theory that Alinghi are going to go out and blow Team New Zealand out of the water. That has been conveniently placed by Alinghi - and by the European media - because they want the cup to stay in Europe. It is not
what I have observed.
The New Zealanders will be competitive. How competitive? We'll just have to wait and see.
There has been a lot of discussion about whether Team New Zealand have saved some gear for the final.
I am not sure. You may see some new little things, like the winch pods we saw in the Louis Vuitton final, but they will be looking to refine things. And if they do bring some new stuff, it will be very subtle.
It looks to me that the big bits were probably locked in place before the team left Auckland.
Probably the biggest area for both teams will be sails. New sails are faster than old ones, so expect to see plenty of new ones in the match.
Team New Zealand could remode the boat - change the keel, rudder, winglets, fin and so on. They have a couple of different bulb shapes. So far they have stuck with the slightly shorter one with the New Zealand flag on it. They have switched the bulbs on the boats over the past few days.
Shorter, fatter ones tend to be better in lighter air. They do have a longer bulb, which has a lower centre of gravity. The downside to them is they have tendency to pitch a bit more.
Predicting what the weather is going to do will be crucial. Team New Zealand's weather man, Roger "clouds" Badham, is sure to go even greyer.
Working out where to pitch yourself against the opposition involves at lot of analysing your opponent across the water. Team New Zealand would have watched Alinghi race Luna Rossa. The Italians took a couple of races off Alinghi.
Some races were close, others weren't. In one race Alinghi cleaned them out but in another Luna Rossa cleaned out Alinghi.
What can be taken from that? It is hard to tell. You have to look at what sails they were using, the crew sailing - all the factors. However, it did appear Alinghi were keen to work on prestarts.
Team New Zealand will have some ideas of where they want to be in relation to the Swiss boat. That might be a bit different from where they wanted to be in relation to Luna Rossa.
It is one thing to optimise your boat to what you want yourself, and another to optimise it in relation to your opposition. It comes down to trade-offs. The Kiwis look quick downwind, so they might trade off some of that.
They are not going to make any big breakthroughs now. They are what they are.