Expert divides challengers into three clear divisions

By TERRY MADDAFORD

With the favourites taking expected victories on day one of the Louis Vuitton Cup it was difficult to get a clear line on relative boat speed.

Yachting New Zealand high-performance manager Peter Lester, on hand for the first day's racing, came ashore convinced there will be three clear divisions in the race to find the challenger for Team New Zealand.

"Straight away it is apparent Alinghi, One World and Oracle have a definite edge," Lester said. "In the second group I can see GBR, the Swedes, Stars and Stripes and Prada fighting for the fourth semifinal spot.

"The third group of the French and Mascalzone Latino appear to be some way off the pace.

"From what I saw, it seems the top contenders are pretty even in terms of boat speed. In the race between Stars and Stripes and GBR as an example, the Americans were quicker downwind while GBR was slightly faster upwind. In the end, it really came down to that crucial first cross.

"Of the others, Alinghi was most impressive. They creamed the French without trying.

"In a regatta like this, there will be a range of performances over the fleet," Lester said. " When the top four [for the semifinals] have been found, it will come down to how much each can advance boat speed.

"More importantly, it will be a question of having the resources and time to make these advances and having the capacity to step up."

Lester says he does not accept that Alinghi will waltz into the final and then challenge for the cup.

"The further the racing goes, the more important the design boffins such as Laurie Davidson [One World], Bruce Farr [Oracle] and Doug Peterson [Prada] will become.

Alinghi's designer, Rolf Vrolijik, has little Cup experience although he designed the Spanish boat Bravo Espana for the last Louis Vuitton Cup.

Stars and Stripes, the narrowest and, therefore, most radical boat on show yesterday, did not have any apparent advantage apart from slightly higher speed downwind.

In yesterday's conditions - around 10-15 knots - it was simply a case of making it around the course.

As the winds pick up and conditions get tougher, Lester sees reliability as a major challenge.

"These boats are brittle so there's a big possibility that at some stage their reliability will be tested."

Looking ahead to the time when Team New Zealand will front to defend the cup, Lester is hoping the challenger's series remains close.

"If one or two jump out and smoke away from the rest ... I would have some concerns.

"But if there is no clear speedster then, I feel, Team New Zealand will be right in there."