Changing weather is king on race days

By JULIE ASH

Excitement is at an all-time high and the nine challengers are ready to race, but the weather will determine if the teams even make it out of the Viaduct Harbour today.

Racing in the Louis Vuitton challenger series is scheduled to start at 12.15pm.

The forecast predicts cool, unstable south-westerly winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots and occasional showers - a pattern which is expected to continue throughout October and November.

The rules of the challenger series state that no race will be started in less than seven knots or more than 19, and that racing will not continue if it is consistently blowing more than 23 knots.

To cater for the changeable Auckland weather, reserve days have been slotted in throughout the regatta and will be used if racing cannot go ahead on a particular day.

Any sailor will admit that the Hauraki Gulf is one of the trickiest venues in the world to race on, which is why most syndicates have spent a lot of time and money analysing the area.

With land or islands on three sides, the race area is in the relatively sheltered waters in the inner gulf.

To the south of the track are Rangitoto and Motutapu islands, with the East Coast Bays of Auckland to the west and the Whangaparaoa Peninsula and Tiritiri Matangi Island on the northern border.

With rapidly changing weather and the series of islands disrupting and altering the already inconsistent wind, analysing the weather for an event such as the America's Cup must be every meteorologist's worst nightmare.

Oracle BMW Racing's meteorologist, Bob Rice, says the only thing it is safe to assume is that "there will be the usual mix of Auckland weather and race days will be lost through too much wind."

He said that as we get into summer there should be lighter-air days.

"But I don't think it will stray too much from the normal."

OneWorld meteorologist Ken Campbell says all indications point towards an El Nino weather pattern.

El Nino is a natural feature of the global climate system. Elements of an El Nino weather pattern include high-frequency south-west winds and small seas.

He predicts that October will continue to be showery, with frequent cold fronts and strong winds.

Then he hopes that a warmer summer will follow.

Rice says forecasters have a rough idea about what is coming two to three days ahead, but anything more means they are guessing.

"Long-range forecasts don't work.

"If someone could actually forecast a year ahead, they would be a billionaire.

"It might happen one day, but it won't be in my time."

nzherald.co.nz/americascup

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