We are now definitely in a stable summer light air pattern in Bermuda, this could be a game changer, because if the winds stay below 12 knots the teams will all be running their light air foils and modes.
The next three days are all forecast for south-westerliesunder 10 knots,some of the days are even marginal for racing (minimum needed to start a race is 6 knot average).
Who has the edge in the light where the key issue is who can fly the longest and in the lightest wind strengths and especially, who can stay on their foils through the tacks?
On day one of the challenger finals, in the first race, a non-foiling tack cost at least 15 seconds on an opponent who could foil tack. Add up a minimum of 10 tacks per race and that is massive (ie. two minutes plus around the course). So for me, this is the key factor to look for tomorrow.
To date, Emirates Team New Zealand has been by far the strongest of all the teams in this regard. Will they still have that edge?
Thus, if this model is correct there is unlikely to be a start. However, the GFS predictive model forecasts 9-12 knots. Let's hope that one is correct - but one thing is clear - it's going to be a light wind, marginal foiling day.
