American Magic helmsman Dean Barker. Photo / Photosport
American Magic helmsman Dean Barker. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The bookies are finding it difficult to separate Luna Rossa and American Magic in the Prada Cup semi-final but my money's on the New York Yacht Club guys to have the edge.
Most sailing experts around town look at the American's total package and think it's the best forthree reasons.
Tactically, the American's are a bit stronger. Both teams have very good sailors, but it will be a bit more difficult to pass Dean Barker's crew. They tend to give up a bit of their lead to protect their lead and can close the race down better than other teams.
Barker also has the historical edge over Luna Rossa helmsman Jimmy Spithill. He's probably beaten him over the start line 70 per cent of the time they've raced – and if the Americans can get ahead, get a bit of leverage and a lead, they'll be very hard to catch.
There's a lot of talk about rivalry being a motivator but I wouldn't put too much weight there, they're both too old for that. It's all about who starts best and who gets their act together in terms of starting the boats properly.
American Magic helmsman Dean Barker. Photo / Photosport
The weather may also favour the American's. The forecast suggests winds will be near the limit to start with, but dropping off throughout the weekend. I believe American Magic have the advantage in the wind speed. If they can get a few early wins today, I don't think the regatta will be close.
There's also a ton of pressure out there. Lose four races and these teams could be going home Saturday afternoon.
But the problem with predicting a winner in these races are the boats are so new, and they're putting new bits on them all the time – so it's very hard to call.
For Luna Rossa, the Challenger of Record (COR), I think their aim has changed a bit. I read with interest the decision by COR to scrap the 15-minute delay rule trialled in last weekend's final round-robin race between Ineos Team UK and the Italian syndicate. The US team's skipper Terry Hutchinson has voiced his disappointment at a decision, and I see his point. I think Luna Rossa have lost their way a little bit.
This is the Challenger series, it's got nothing to do with Team NZ and they should be trying to find out who the best Challenger can be. To do that you have to put your own agenda behind you in a lot of cases, and they don't seem capable of that.
The Secret Sailor is an internationally acclaimed yachtie with a strong history in the America's Cup.
Heading into the Cup racing?
• Give yourself plenty of time and think about catching a ferry, train or bus to watch the Cup.
• Make sure your AT HOP card is in your pocket. It's the best way to ride.
• Don't forget to scan QR codes with the NZ COVID Tracer app when on public transport and entering the America's Cup Village.
