The All Blacks’ ongoing search for elusive consistency will lead to recalling most, if not all, of their seven rested incumbents in Cardiff.
Ethan de Groot, Sam Whitelock, Ardie Savea, Rieko Ioane, Scott, Jordie and Beauden Barrett did not feature in the scratchy win againstJapan. Fellow starters Aaron Smith, David Havili and Tyrel Lomax came off the bench in Tokyo. All could be promoted to confront Wales this week.
The underwhelming Japanese test revealed several concerning aspects for the All Blacks.
The first is their continued lack of sustained mental application, with an inherent complacency and questions around effort evident after the failure to kick on from a dominant lead against Japan. The latter issue was true against the Wallabies and Pumas earlier this year, too.
The other worry is the significant drop in calibre from the All Blacks first to second and, in some case, third choice options. From Finlay Christie to Hoskins Sotutu, few fringe prospects enhanced their cause against Japan, to leave little pressure on established figures.
This week the forward pack the All Blacks favoured throughout the Rugby Championship is, therefore, expected to be swiftly reinstated. De Groot, destructive hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho and Lomax are likely to pack down in the front row, unless promising tighthead Fletcher Newell is promoted.
Ardie Savea Ethan de Groot and Samisoni Taukeiaho of the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
Scott Barrett is expected to slide back into his favoured locking position alongside stand-in skipper Whitelock. After impressing off the bench last week, Dalton Papali’i should get the nod to assume the seven jersey from injured captain Sam Cane – alongside Shannon Frizell or Akira Ioane in the loose forwards, with Savea returning to No 8.
This time last year Papali’i played two standout starting tests for the All Blacks, scoring a try against Wales before delivering a superb defensive effort in the Dublin defeat to signal his ability at the elite level.
In the backline questions linger over selections at first five-eighth, second-five and fullback.
Behind a less-than-impressive platform Richie Mo’unga failed to regularly challenge the line, deliver decisive kicking or ignite the attack against Japan, which opens the door to the prospect of Beauden Barrett, promoted to vice-captain this week, regaining the first-five reins at the same venue he claimed two tries to celebrate his 100th test last year.
Richie Mo'unga has signalled his desire to play overseas after the World Cup. Photo / Photosport
If Mo’unga is retained, Barrett may revert to fullback or an impact role from the bench.
Jordie Barrett’s selection ties into that scenario in another intriguing proposition. In his last test against the Wallabies at Eden Park, the youngest Barrett offered the most compelling performance from a second-five since the Ma’a Nonu All Blacks era.
While the All Blacks have been widely urged to continue with Barrett at 12, Ian Foster has, to this point at least, maintained he prefers him at fullback.
Barrett at 12 is the bold, form selection. Yet the All Blacks appear likely to return to the Havili-Ioane combination they showed staunch faith in throughout the Rugby Championship.
That midfield pairing hasn’t enjoyed significant game time for two months – since the All Blacks dismantled the Pumas in Hamilton - after Havili suffered a head clash early in the Melbourne Bledisloe escape and missed the return victory against the Wallabies in Auckland.
“Every opportunity I get to play with Rieko is pretty special,” Havili said in Cardiff. “He’s a great athlete and someone I love playing with. When he gets an opportunity with ball in hand that’s what I’m looking to give him.
“There’s always a bond there - we’ve played together for the last couple of years now. It’s pretty familiar. If I get the opportunity this week it’s about reconnecting with him and readjusting a few things.”
Whether Jordie Barrett or Havili starts at second-five the All Blacks will demand much more playmaking assistance, specifically on the tactical kicking front, than Roger Tuivasa-Sheck offered last week.
With limited options on the wings while Will Jordan recovers from his inner ear issue, Caleb Clarke and Sevu Reece are expected to be retained on the edges.
Personnel aside, the All Blacks must banish their Jekyll and Hyde ways by issuing a statement of intent on a northern tour that promises to define their wildly fluctuating season.
To this point they have much to prove. This year’s standout victories at Ellis Park, Hamilton and Eden Park have all been one-off. Following another underwhelming performance in Japan, the All Blacks theme remains consistently unconvincing.
Rust after a month between tests, largely unfamiliar combinations and Brodie Retallick’s red card with 15 minutes remaining undoubtedly contributed to the All Blacks’ near thing against Japan but, collectively, they were well short of demanded standards.
As the front-line, first-choice squad prepares to return, the All Blacks find themselves in the all too familiar territory of needing to rectify another poor performance and restore some semblance of the fear factor their predecessors once commanded from all corners of the rugby world.
Betting tip:
14/31 ($19)
The Sauce has skyrocketed back into profit thanks to the Wellington 1-12 margin NPC final tip last time out that paid $3.70. This week we’re combining four favourites – the Black Ferns, All Blacks -4.5 as well as Australia and the Black Caps to win their final T20 World Cup pool matches in a $2.15 multi offering.
