Wynne Gray: Hard ask to get this job done in the rarefied air

Once again, a Lions team stands between triumph and disappointment for a New Zealand side. Photo / Photosport

Everything says the Crusaders can't win the Super Rugby crown tomorrow but then everything says they can.

History is packed with high decibel noise about unlikely victories for travelling sides while the visitors' quality says they can overcome those odds when the series reaches its high altitude conclusion.

The only certainty is the teams are unchanged for the Johannesburg decider with kickoff pushed back an hour from last week to 2am, when referee Jaco Peyper will start the final match of a competition which began in February when weather was fine. Those conditions are expected for this conclusion to the 22nd edition of Super Rugby.

As it was last month, a Lions team stands between triumph and disappointment for a New Zealand side. A shared series between the All Blacks and the British and Irish Lions left the country unsettled. A Crusaders' defeat will mean more of the same.

It feels unjust four New Zealand teams should make most of the running in the series but only one remains to reinforce that perception. If the Crusaders snap the away finals hoodoo they will emulate their 2000 predecessors who won in a photo-finish against the Brumbies in Canberra. They'll also break a nine-year title drought since they beat the Waratahs in the 2008 final.

There's no secret about the Crusaders' plan. They want to control the tempo through their All Blacks-laden pack with Owen Franks and Kieran Read declared fit and put the defensive squeeze on the Lions distribution and inside backs.

Last week, the Hurricanes went wide and fed from the pressure they applied to build a strong lead but failed to bolster that advantage and ended up running on fumes.

The Crusaders won't be so adventurous but relying on penalties won't be good enough against a Lions side who will use the width of the field.

Decisions made by the halves and five eighths will be a massive influence on the result and that's where the Lions have the experience of rugby on their home patch.

Bryn Hall and Richie Mo'unga have talent to match Ross Cronje and Elton Jantjies but don't have the added value of picking their way through numerous matches in conditions which are second nature to the Lions.

Cronje makes the plays from halfback, sensing where the defenders have lost their shape or holes are beginning to show and he uses his instincts as much as any pre-determined patterns. He'll take off on sniping runs, too, creating another avenue to stress the tacklers and his plays add value to Jantjies impact.

Home sides are regular winners because they know their patch and feed from that knowledge and their supporters. The Crusaders are battling a bucket of odds to achieve a rare triumph.