Will Sonny Bill Williams and the Chiefs be crowned champions in 2015? Photo / Christine Cornege
With three rounds of the Super Rugby regular competition remaining, our experts answer some of the vital questions that will define the season.
1. The Hurricanes are in a commanding position but do they have the mental fortitude and rugby personnel to be champions?
They do. Everyone is waiting for them to implode because that's what's happened in the past and has also been the case with Wellington in the ITM Cup. But the one area of perceived weakness has been their tight five and they have been magnificent all season - tough, mobile and also, significantly, they have been able to maintain their collective form despite suffering plenty of injuries. The depth is there and so too the belief.
2. Who is the dark horse at this stage that could surprise everyone in the next six weeks?
The Waratahs are timing their run nicely. They have been wobbly all season but their victory against the Crusaders last week signals they may have found another gear. Their pack has suddenly become more cohesive and engaged and they could sneak a home semifinal which may be significant.
3. Is there any player in particular who has surprised you with the quality and consistency of their performances?
Hika Elliot has been impressive; James Broadhurst has found that aggressive edge and desire to impose himself every week and Waisake Naholo has gone from Blues reject to, deservedly, the edge of the All Blacks. But it's been the work of Ardie Savea that has been impossible to ignore. He looks better equipped to deal with the physicality of the breakdown and yet has lost none of his speed or athleticism.
4. Which player will have the biggest influence in shaping the outcome of the competition in the next six weeks?
Sonny Bill Williams hasn't really got going yet. There have been bursts and flashes but not consistently influential performances as in 2012. He's due to fire up and give the Chiefs that direct presence they have been missing in the midfield and open up the attacking options.
5. Which coaching team would you rate as the best equipped for the next six weeks in terms of selections and strategic analysis?
The Dave Rennie-Tom Coventry-Andrew Strawbridge combination at the Chiefs is impossible to look past. They have two titles to their credit and are adept at picking opposition weak points and matching their selections and gameplan to exploit what they have seen.
6. Who do you think will be crowned champions in 2015?
Chiefs. They have been scrambling through - still winning - without Brodie Retallick, Aaron Cruden and Williams - as well as a few other key players. With the exception of Cruden, they are going to be close to full strength in the last six weeks, with some key players relatively fresh and eager to go. They have the experience, players, coaching team and self-belief to play the right type of rugby and win.
1. The Hurricanes are in a commanding position but do they have the mental fortitude and rugby personnel to actually be champions?
Home and away this season against allcomers except the Tahs and in all conditions, the Canes have scaled the winning rostrum. That indicates they have the endurance and skills to get the business done regularly and there are probably only two other sides capable of upsetting them.
2. Who is the dark horse at this stage? The team that could surprise everyone in the next six weeks.
At this stage everyone below the Canes is an outsider. The defending champion Tahs are lurking in that group and have a strong roster, understand the pitfalls in getting to the top and the demands in coping with playoff rugby. The Highlanders are a really black stallion in great touch but they won't last the distance.
3. Is there any player in particular who has surprised you with the quality and consistency of their performances?
Michael Leitch has been terrific for the Chiefs. Injury denied him two years ago but his leadership and massive workrate have been a boon this season as they've dealt with a damaged roster. He is a lineout option while his mobility and direction complements the relentless hard work supplied by fellow loosies Liam Messam and Sam Cane.
4. Which player do you think will have the biggest influence in shaping the outcome of the competition in the next six weeks?
Beauden Barrett is the key to the Hurricanes' progress. James Marshall and Otere Black have made positive contributions in his injury absence but the All Black five-eighths adds another dimension with his pace and ability to generate chances for the rest of the side.
5. Which coaching team would you rate as the best equipped to handle the next six weeks in terms of selections and strategic analysis?
How do you go past the Dave Rennie, Tom Coventry, Andrew Strawbridge troika with expert assistance from Wayne Smith who've coaxed the Chiefs past the injury loss of several stars.
6. Who do you think will be crowned champions in 2015?
Let's be really bold and go for the Canes.
1. The Hurricanes are in a commanding position but do they have the mental fortitude and rugby personnel to actually be champions?
They certainly have the personnel, particularly with the wonderful talent of Beauden Barrett set for a return. The first bit of that equation is impossible answer until they've done it but the signs are good. John Plumtree and Ma'a Nonu have added steel to their on- and off-field work so I'm tempted to say yes. The one team they will not want to meet in the final is the Chiefs, who know how to get it done at the end.
2. Who is the dark horse at this stage? The team that could surprise everyone in the next six weeks.
More a light-blue horse. It'd be wrong to call the defending champions outsiders, but they haven't attracted an awful lot of attention here, but they look like they've got their swagger back. The question mark I'd have around them is that they won't get the favours they get at home in an away final. Honestly, I don't know whether it's the threat of a Michael Cheika blowdryer treatment or just that refs love hanging out in Sydney, but the Waratahs get an outrageous amount of assistance at home.
3. Is there any player in particular who has surprised you with the quality and consistency of their performances?
Yes, there is. At the start of this campaign I would have ranked my World Cup halfback contenders in this order (knowing Tawera Kerr-Barlow was gone): Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Andy Ellis, Augustine Pulu, The Rest. Now I'd have the Chiefs Brad Weber slotting into No 3 quite comfortably. No one can match Smith's speed of thought and clearance and Perenara is streets ahead in terms of his support lines (eight, EIGHT, tries), but Weber looks an excellent back-up option.
4. Which player do you think will have the biggest influence in shaping the outcome of the competition in the next six weeks?
Sonny Bill Williams. He's been an infrequent flyer for the Chiefs in 2015 and that has undoubtedly hurt them. He is such an integral part of their attacking plan, having carried the ball 96 times in eight games. That's four more times than Nonu has carried in close to twice as much field time. Williams' offloading numbers, as you would expect, are great, but he was a bit of a liability in defence, missing 12 tackles in eight games meaning a success rate of less than 75 per cent. Slice the stats up any way you want though but the fact remains: the Chiefs are a more dangerous team with him on the field than off.
5. Which coaching team would you rate as the best equipped to handle the next six weeks in terms of selections and strategic analysis?
Again I'd lean towards the Chiefs, though I think sometimes they get a bit guilty of out-clevering themselves. But they've won a couple, the Waratahs have won one, so these are the two brainstrusts who know how to get it done.
6. Who do you think will be crowned champions in 2015?
The Chiefs.
Rob Penney is keeping his cards close to his chest with regards to his coaching future.