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Home / Sport / Rugby / Super Rugby

The Stats Don't Lie: Who holds the edge in local derbies?

Herald online
2 Mar, 2012 12:15 AM4 mins to read

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The Chief's lineout hummed along fairly well last week with 80 percent of their own throws won, in contrast the Blues' lineout was a bit stuttery losing six of their 20 throws. Photo / Getty Images

The Chief's lineout hummed along fairly well last week with 80 percent of their own throws won, in contrast the Blues' lineout was a bit stuttery losing six of their 20 throws. Photo / Getty Images

Opinion by

Round two of the 2012 Super 15 sees another two local derbies as the Chiefs host the Blues on Friday night, while the Highlanders are at home to the Crusaders. Between times the Hurricanes will take on the Lions in Johannesburg.

CHIEFS v BLUES

The Blues conceded the least penalties of all the New Zealand sides last week, but their lack of aggression at the breakdown cost them as the Crusaders won nine turnovers to their four. This week they will need up their game in the tackle zone, especially against the Chiefs' midfield pairing of Sonny Bill Williams and Richard Kahui who won four of their team's seven breakdown turnovers last week.

Key match ups in the midfield with the line-busting Rene Ranger coming up against the big-tackling Richard Kahui, while the Blues' defence will be watching Sonny Bill Williams who despite having a quietish game last week still managed two good off-loads in the tackle.

The Chief's lineout hummed along fairly well last week with 80 percent of their own throws won, Craig Clarke being their main ball winner with five takes. In contrast the Blues' lineout was a bit stuttery losing six of their 20 throws. Watch for plenty of contest in this area of the game.

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With front row injuries besetting the Chiefs, the Blues may look to the scrum as a set piece weapon to launch attacks from. Keep an eye out for Rudi Wulf who made two clean linebreaks last week.

Both sides will be watching the weather anxiously, with nine handling errors coming from both teams last week in relatively good conditions.

Michael Hobbs will want to improve his kicking stats this week, having finished with a 60 percent success rate against the Crusaders. Aaron Cruden, in contrast, was 100 percent with his five attempts at goal.

Last year the Chiefs lost to the Blues 13-16 in Hamilton before gaining revenge in the return match with a 16-11 win at Eden Park.

HIGHLANDERS v CRUSADERS

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This will be the first Super Rugby game to be played at the new Forsyth Barr stadium in Dunedin, and there are just over 2700 seats left to be sold in the 22,700 capacity ground. Last year the Crusaders beat the Highlanders 44-13 at Carisbrook, but then lost the return game 16-34 in Nelson.

The Highlanders had the best lineout of the NZ teams last week, with Adam Thomson winning 10 of their 12 throws. Will the Crusaders be able to shut him down this week? What inside knowledge will ex-Highlander Tom Donnelly have for his new Crusaders team, having already managed two steals off the Blues' lineout last week?

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The battle of the breakdown promises to be heated - last week two thirds of the penalties conceded by the Crusaders came at the breakdown, while the Highlanders conceded over 80 percent of theirs in the tackle zone.

However, with contest comes reward and the Crusaders won nine turnovers with Matt Todd claiming five of them, so he will be the man for the Highlanders to watch. The Highlanders won 10 breakdown turnovers against the Chiefs, with three of those coming from their very effective counter-rucking.

Watch for the match-ups at centre where twinkle-toed Tamati Ellison (two linebreaks last week) meets powerhouse Robbie Fruean, and the loose forward battle between Adam Thomson and Matt Todd.

LIONS v HURRICANES

The Hurricanes have won five of the six games played between these two sides, and last year won 38-27 in Wellington. But the Lions are the current Currie Cup champions, and playing them in Johannesburg is a very different story. Historically games between these two teams have been high scoring, with an average tally of 57.5 points scored per game.

Watch for the two superboots in this match, with Beauden Barrett having kicked at 100 percent last weekend while Elton Jantjies slotted 9 from 11 penalty attempts against the Cheetahs.

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Discipline will be key for the visitors this week, with three yellow cards costing them dearly against the Stormers in the opening round. They conceded a whopping 20 penalties last week, a repeat performance would offer Jantjies the chance to extend his lead as the competition's top points scorer to date.

The Hurricanes will be wanting to nail their lineouts this weekend, winning just 56 per cent of their own ball last week. With four scrum penalties and three maul penalties conceded last week, set piece could be the make or break for the Hurricanes in this game.

Attacking play was also problematic for the Hurricanes last week, with eight knock-ons occurring and just one linebreak made despite having 50 percent of the possession.

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