The stats don't lie: Week 15 preview

Conrad Smith returns for the Hurricanes tonight. Photo / Getty Images

The game all eyes will be on this weekend is the last of the round at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane as the 4th placed Crusaders take on the 1st placed Reds.

The Hurricanes and Force kick off the weekend in Palmerston North, while the Highlanders host the Lions in Dunedin on Saturday night. The Blues and Chiefs have the bye this weekend, and the four points the Blues pick up from that will be enough to keep them top of the New Zealand conference even if the Crusaders get maximum points against the Reds.

If the Crusaders can beat the Reds and deny them any competition points, it will place the Blues on equal points with the Reds.

HURRICANES v FORCE

- Of the five games played between the two teams the Hurricanes have won four, losing just the one game in 2007. Last year the Hurricanes beat the Force by 47-22.

- The last game the Hurricanes won was back in Round 11 when they beat the Reds in Wellington. They followed that with a losses to the Blues and Highlanders before sitting out last week with the bye.

- The Hurricanes welcome back Conrad Smith this week, and he teams up with Ma'a Nonu for the first time since Round nine.

- Meanwhile, the Force have lost backs James O'Connor, Brett Sheehan, Willie Ripia and Gene Fairbanks to injury. O'Connor is the second equal highest points scorer in the compeition with 164 points, which includes three tries.

- The Hurricanes have tidied up their discipline in recent weeks, conceding an average of just seven penalties per game since Round 11.

- Glen Jackson, ex Chiefs/Waikato player and now referee, will take charge of his first Super game. Up until this week he has been officiating the sidelines.

HIGHLANDERS v LIONS

- Back from injury are midfielder Shaun Treeby and flanker Adam Thomson. Thomson will be playing his 50th game for the Highlanders, while Treeby teams up again with Kendrick Lynn in a combination that has worked well this season but hasn't been seen since Round 10.

- Watch for offloads in the tackle by Lynn and Treeby, they are in the top five New Zealand midfielders for this skill with Lynn having made fourteen and Treeby nine.

- The Lions may be bottom of the table but they have scored more points on attack than the Highlanders, shading them by 31 points. However, they have conceded 57 more points on defence leaking on average 10 points more each game than the Highlanders.

- The Highlanders' lineout remains the best in New Zealand, still running at 89% on their own ball.

REDS v CRUSADERS

- These two teams have met sixteen times, with the Crusaders winning twelve of those games. Of the nine games played in Brisbane to date, the Crusaders have won six of them but lost last year 20-41.

- Plenty of match-ups in this game, but most interest is centering around Quade Cooper and Sonny Bill Williams. Both players are key game breakers, with Cooper having made 12 linebreaks and 24 offloads this season. Sonny Bill may not have made as many linebreaks, but he is the top offloader in the competition with a total of 44.

- Robbie Fruean is the top New Zealand line-breaking midfielder averaging just over two per game this season.

- Cooper is the top points scorer of the competition with a tally of 166 points which includes four tries. Dan Carter has amassed a total of 116 points and scored two tries, but his points have come in just nine games at an average of 12.88. Last week Carter scored a total of 20 points with the boot.

- Fingers will be crossed for a dry night, with the Crusaders the best attacking team in the competition (averaging 31.75 points per game) and the Reds the second best (averaging 29.58) there is sure to be plenty of running play.

- The Crusaders will be looking for dominance up front with one of the best scrums in the competition. Last week they won a tighthead off the Chiefs, and have an 80% success rate with their lineout. Key lineout match ups will be Chris Jack and Brad Thorn up against James Horwill who has won 37 lineouts this season.

- The numbers suggest this game could go down to the wire. Taking the for-and-against points for both sides this season suggests a possible final score of 26-24 to the Crusaders.

- This game will break the record for the most attendees at an Australian Super Rugby fixture. The record currently stands at 42,000, and by Friday morning they had pre-sold 47,000 tickets. Suncorp Stadium can hold 51,500 people.

Further NZ player stats can be found at Haka.co.nz


- HERALD ONLINE