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Home / Sport / Rugby / Super Rugby

The Stats Don't Lie: Blues face Christchurch hoodoo again

Herald online
18 May, 2012 12:02 AM4 mins to read

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The Blues lost to the Crusaders by just one point in the opening game of the competition this season. Photo / Getty Images

The Blues lost to the Crusaders by just one point in the opening game of the competition this season. Photo / Getty Images

Opinion by

Stats guru Tracey Nelson crunches the numbers ahead of latest round of Super 15 as the Blues look for their first win in Christchurch since 2004.

HURRICANES v BRUMBIES (Mark Lawrence)

These two sides have played 17 times with the Brumbies ahead by just one game with eight wins. Of the seven games against the Brumbies played in Wellington the Hurricanes have won four, lost three.

Last year the Brumbies pipped the Hurricanes by a solitary point, winning 17-16 in Canberra. Before that encounter, the Hurricanes had won the previous four matches.

Of the 10 matches the Brumbies have played this year the score margin in seven of those games has been by seven points or less, including their four losses.

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The Hurricanes are the second only to the Bulls for points scored (314) and along with the Bulls have scored the most tries in the competition with 36.

Andre Taylor remains top equal try scorer with eight, and is the top line-breaker in the competition with a total of nine. His teammate Julian Savea has made seven line breaks and has scored three tries to date.

Henry Speight, the ex-Waikato winger, has scored five tries for the Brumbies this season, broken through 35 tackles, and made seven line breaks.

Watch for the Brumbies' openside flanker Michael Hooper, who has made 128 tackles, won eight turnovers at the breakdown, and only conceded three penalties all season.

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS (Ian Smith)

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There have been 16 games between the two and the Highlanders are well ahead with 10 wins. There has been one draw.

Last year the Highlanders beat the Bulls 35-28 in Pretoria. The Bulls come into this match on the back of five consecutive wins, while the Highlanders have lost their last two games.

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The Bulls have a good record on the road this season, having won all three of the matches they played in Australia. The Highlanders have won three games at Forsyth Barr Stadium, but are currently on a two-match losing streak there.

Morne Steyn will be playing his 100th game for the Bulls, and currently leads the competition with his 161 points made up of one try, thirty two conversions, twenty seven penalties and two drop goals.

Watch for the Bulls' flying wingers Bjorn Basson who has made eight linebreaks and scored seven tries, and Akona Ndungane with seven linebreaks and three tries.

The Highlanders have made the most linebreaks of any team other than the Brumbies in the competition, thanks in large part to Hosea Gear (nine) and Ben Smith (seven), but have only scored twenty five tries - eleven less than the Bulls.

Adam Thomson remains the top lineout jumper for the Highlanders with 49 takes this season, while Bulls lock Juandre Kruger is their top jumper with 43 takes. The Highlanders' lineout is running at 83 percent.

CRUSDADERS v BLUES (Bryce Lawrence)

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The Crusaders have won 11 of the 20 games played between the two sides, and beat the Blues by just one point in the opening game of the competition this season.

The Blues haven't beaten the Crusaders in Christchurch since 2004, when they won 38-29.

With Richie McCaw moving to No 8 this week to cover for the injured Kieran Read, Matt Todd comes back at openside flanker where he has made 164 tackles this season.

The Blues' lineout has only been performing at 70 percent on their own ball, while the Crusaders are running at 82 percent on their throws. Last week the Crusaders won 100 percent of their lineouts in the loss to the Reds.

The Blues only made six handling errors that resulted in a turnover of possession last week, well down on their season average of almost 12 per game. The Crusaders are averaging nine turnovers per game due to handling errors.

The Blues remain the least penalised team of the New Zealand sides with just 87 conceded in their 11 matches. The Crusaders have conceded 99, with Wyatt Crockett the worst offender with 11 penalties and two yellow cards.

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Dan Carter takes back the No 10 jersey and goal kicking duties in the absence of an injured Tom Taylor. Carter has been the goal kicker in just one game previously this season, back in Round 7 in the Crusaders' loss to the Bulls. Carter kicked at 57 percent that day, landing four from seven attempts but was succesful with a drop goal.

Gareth Anscombe has been kicking at 70 percent this season, but in his last two games has dropped back to 50 percent. Piri Weepu has only taken the goal kicking role once so far, in Round 11, and kicked at 80 percent.

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