Super Rugby Pacific semifinals spiced up by lack of championship mindset – Gregor Paul

The Blues' triumph in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman in 2021 was the only time since 2016 that one of the four remaining teams hoisted a trophy. Photo / Photosport

Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He’s won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.

OPINION

Normally when Super Rugby reaches the semifinals stage, it’s a straightforward process about what happens next – the target="_blank">Crusaders use their superior mental strength and vast experience in winning knockout games to stay calmer and more focused than everyone else to become champions.

But 2024 has presented a scenario not seen since 2016, and one that has only happened in four other years, which is that the Crusaders have not made it to the penultimate weekend.

What we have, instead, are four clubs still standing, none of whom have shown in the immediate past the conviction required to win the big moments in the big games.

More bluntly, none of the four teams in action this weekend has shown, not for the last decade at least, that they have a championship mindset.

Go through their respective records and it shows something is not quite there – that they can’t quite hold it all together when they get this far into the competition.

The Blues and Chiefs have had their respective psychological fault lines exposed most recently, both falling to the same fate of cruising to the final only to discover once they get there that they did not have the mental prowess to cope or the depth of strategic analysis to adapt to the different demands finals football presents.

The Hurricanes haven’t gotten this far since 2019 and they haven’t hosted a semifinal since 2016 – the year they won their only title.

Their recent history has seen them blow up in the quarter-finals, while the Brumbies have been a permanent fixture in the last four of Super Rugby Pacific but haven’t found the killer touch to become the first Australian team to win a knockout game in New Zealand.

It’s this uncertainty about which of the Hurricanes, Blues, Chiefs or Brumbies is going to channel their inner Crusaders these next two weeks which is making Super Rugby Pacific 2024 the most fascinating competition in almost a decade.

All four of the semifinalists have unquestionably earned the right to be where they are, but everything changes from this point.

This is now a quest for validation for all four clubs; an opportunity to prove that they can deliver when it matters most – and the question is, which one of them can break free from the shackles of their past failures and own the next two weeks?

The natural inclination, given the evidence presented so far, is to see this as a two-horse race between the Hurricanes and Blues.

The Hurricanes have shown they are resilient and resourceful and while they looked nervous and disjointed for the first 40 minutes against the Rebels, their relatively young squad clicked after halftime, got their scrum working, dominated the collisions and built their patterns to once again show they have a depth of character that no one should underestimate.

Their rugby looks fit for purpose – robust and creative in the right volumes and in the right places in which those respective traits are required.

The Blues, who have been rock solid all year and committed to an up-the-middle, bash-them-till-we-break-them sort of game plan, have beaten the Brumbies at Eden Park already this season and will be confident they can do so again.

Theirs is a low-risk offering – usually an effective choice in knockout games and there’s no doubt that the Crusaders did them a massive favour in beating them a few weeks ago to serve as a painful reminder of how thin the margins are when the best encounter the best.

But while it’s natural to see the Hurricanes and Blues as the likely finalists, the Crusaders have shown over the last two decades that the art of finals football is producing a quality and intensity of performance that exceeds anything previously produced on the way to making the last four.

Champion teams lift their accuracy, play with a sharper pass and catch and produce tactical nuances that no one saw coming, and it’s undeniable that the Crusaders surprised the Blues in the 2022 final and the Chiefs in 2023 with their lift in energy and desire.

The wildcard in 2024, therefore, is the Chiefs, because it seems we have not yet seen them play to their full potential – and they may be the team that has the capacity to find an extra gear that takes everyone by surprise.

They showed against the Reds in the first half hour that when they are on point, they are almost impossible to stop.

When they put it all together as their coaching team wants them to, they have a flow and energy about them that seems strong enough to win them a title – if only they can deliver it consistently.

They lost to the Hurricanes and Blues in consecutive weeks to finish the round robin but that may make them yet more dangerous, as they know that if they can lift their accuracy and improve their discipline, it might be enough to transform them into champions.